TLDR
- Nexi shares plummeted more than 20% to an all-time low following fourth-quarter results that missed analyst estimates.
- Management’s 2026 outlook suggests analysts may need to reduce earnings forecasts going forward.
- Top-line expansion expected to stay stagnant in 2026, matching 2025’s modest 2.1% increase.
- The Italian payments firm anticipates generating €2.4 billion in surplus cash flow from 2026 through 2028, with over €1.1 billion earmarked for investor returns.
- Management’s three-year roadmap aims to restore mid-single-digit top-line expansion by 2028.
Italy’s Nexi experienced a brutal trading session on Thursday. Shares of the payments processor collapsed by more than 20% to an unprecedented low following the release of fourth-quarter figures that fell short of expectations and a three-year outlook that Wall Street analysts believe will necessitate downward earnings revisions.
The market reaction was immediate and brutal, although several analysts suggest investors may have overreacted to the news.
Fourth-quarter revenue remained unchanged at €942.5 million, missing the Street’s expectations by approximately 1%. EBITDA declined to €508.6 million, falling short of analyst projections by roughly 2%. Operating expenses increased on a year-over-year basis to €433.9 million.
The quarterly performance was hindered by persistent challenges stemming from banking merchant-portfolio M&A transactions and contract renegotiations. Management indicated that these headwinds reached their maximum impact during Q4 2025, though they’re expected to persist throughout 2026 before beginning to subside.
During a meeting with investors in Milan, CEO Paolo Bertoluzzo spoke frankly: “You don’t have to believe we can go to the moon.” He acknowledged that pricing concessions were extended to certain banking partners to maintain contract renewals, and that the organization continues to feel the effects of agreements lost in previous years.
2026 Looks Flat
Looking ahead to 2026, Nexi anticipates revenue performance will remain comparable to 2025 levels, when the company achieved 2.1% top-line growth. EBITDA is projected to remain relatively unchanged as management continues allocating resources toward strategic priorities.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Wood stated the forward guidance “implies consensus downgrades” for both the coming year and longer-term projections. Jefferies characterized the quarterly results as “broadly in-line” but highlighted that the 2026 targets “may feel more ambitious than at first glance.”
Jefferies analysts also emphasized their desire to better understand Nexi’s strategy to “ignite growth without risking further contract losses.”
The competitive landscape provides important context. Emerging technologies are reshaping the payments sector, enabling nimble competitors to offer more aggressive pricing than established players. Traditional operators like Nexi, which expanded through acquisitions of banks’ payment operations, face particular vulnerability to this transformation.
Three-Year Plan and Cash Returns
Nexi’s updated medium-term roadmap emphasizes targeting mid-market enterprises to protect market position, with annual revenue growth projected to achieve mid-single-digit rates by 2028. Management expects EBITDA margin improvement by the conclusion of the strategic period.
The organization projects approximately €2.4 billion in surplus cash generation spanning 2026–2028, including roughly €750 million in the current year following strategic investments and elevated tax obligations.
Nexi has also announced a proposed dividend of €0.30 per share, with commitments to increase shareholder payouts by a minimum of 5% each year through the next three years. Aggregate shareholder distributions are forecast to surpass €1.1 billion through 2028.
Bertoluzzo positioned the capital return program as evidence of management’s confidence in the underlying business fundamentals during what the company characterizes as a “transition year.”
Despite the precipitous decline, some analysts observed that the 2025 earnings shortfall was relatively minor and that the medium-term projections weren’t substantially different from previous expectations.
According to Nexi, Q4 2025 represented the zenith of contract renegotiation headwinds, with the negative impact anticipated to progressively diminish moving forward.
