TLDR
- Micron shares have retreated 15% from the February 2 record closing price of $437.80
- Citi upgraded its price objective to $430 from $385 while reaffirming a Buy rating before the March 18 quarterly report
- Susquehanna increased its target to $525 from $345 while maintaining a Positive outlook
- Citi projects DRAM pricing will surge 171% year-over-year in 2026 driven by robust data center requirements
- Reports indicate SK Hynix and Samsung secured exclusive HBM4 supply agreements for Nvidia’s latest Vera Rubin accelerator, excluding Micron initially
Micron shares posted modest gains Monday, advancing 0.5% to $372.29, as the market digested optimistic analyst revisions alongside news that two South Korean competitors secured an important Nvidia supply agreement.
The semiconductor stock has experienced recent volatility. After declining 6.7% Friday and another 0.9% Thursday, shares now sit 15% below the record closing high of $437.80 reached on February 2.
Market participants are closely monitoring developments before Micron releases its fiscal second-quarter results on March 18.
On Monday, two prominent Wall Street analysts elevated their price projections. Citi retained its Buy recommendation while boosting its target to $430 from $385. Susquehanna maintained its Positive stance and delivered a more substantial increase, raising its objective to $525 from $345.
Citi’s Atif Malik identified strengthening memory pricing as the primary catalyst. His updated forecast anticipates DRAM average selling prices climbing 171% year-over-year in 2026, powered by substantial data center requirements. NAND pricing is similarly projected to jump 127% year-over-year due to strong eSSD consumption.
“Our supply chain discussions and analysis point to majority of the 2026 hyperscale capex revision to be driven by higher memory costs,” Malik stated in his research note.
Malik also highlighted industry reports indicating Samsung is implementing a 100% quarter-over-quarter DRAM price increase for the first quarter.
Citi’s research team observed that a significant debate among market participants centers on whether the present memory expansion cycle mirrors the prolonged growth period experienced during the 1990s Windows PC revolution. The firm believes Micron stock can sustain its appreciation through 2026, although they cautioned that momentum may moderate in the second quarter following substantial Q1 gains.
SK Hynix and Samsung Secure Nvidia HBM4 Supply Agreement
South Korean news outlets reported Sunday that SK Hynix and Samsung received designation as exclusive HBM4 memory providers for Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin accelerator platform. Barron’s indicated it had contacted all three manufacturers seeking verification.
The development initially sparked questions regarding Micron’s standing in the high-bandwidth memory sector.
However, independent technology analyst Richard Windsor from Radio Free Mobile challenged the pessimistic interpretation. He anticipates Micron will join the supplier roster later in 2026 as production volumes escalate.
“Furthermore, I do not expect that Micron will suffer a loss of revenues, as everyone is fully booked out for 2026,” Windsor noted. He emphasized that any manufacturing capacity initially designated for Nvidia would be redirected to alternative clients.
Key Factors for Upcoming Earnings
Susquehanna’s Mehdi Hosseini suggested that memory market supply and demand dynamics could achieve equilibrium around mid-2027 as additional manufacturing plants become operational.
He noted that increasingly complex AI computational requirements may sustain elevated memory consumption even as profit margins compress during that timeframe.
Examining the previous three memory demand cycles since the 1990s, Citi observed that Micron shares have traditionally reached peak valuations two to four months ahead of DRAM pricing. Given expectations for continued DRAM price appreciation throughout 2026, Citi identifies potential for additional stock gains.
Micron will announce fiscal second-quarter financial results on March 18.
