TLDR
- Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting anticipated to maintain current rates between 3.5%–3.75%, with Powell’s remarks being closely monitored
- Crude prices surged past $100 per barrel following Iran conflict that has shut down the Strait of Hormuz
- Micron Technology delivers earnings Wednesday following a remarkable year that saw shares rise over 400%
- Earnings calendar includes FedEx, Dollar Tree, Alibaba, and additional retail companies
- Goldman Sachs projects Q4 oil could reach $93/barrel average if Strait blockade continues for two months
Equity markets extended their losing streak to three consecutive weeks as escalating Iran tensions drove crude prices to heights unseen since 2022’s energy squeeze. The S&P 500 shed 1.6% over the period. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2%. The Nasdaq Composite retreated 1.3%.
Investors now face a critical week packed with the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement, a robust earnings season, and Nvidia’s flagship developer conference.
The Federal Open Market Committee convenes Wednesday for its latest interest rate deliberation. Current policy maintains the Fed funds rate within a 3.5% to 3.75% range. Market participants are assigning extremely high probability to an unchanged rate decision.
Chairman Jerome Powell’s post-decision press conference will follow. Analysts suggest his commentary could prove more consequential than the rate verdict itself.
Powell faces questions about growing internal disagreement at the Fed. Certain policymakers advocate for additional rate reductions citing employment weakness. Other officials express concern that energy-linked inflation pressures may intensify.
This marks Powell’s penultimate scheduled press conference before his chairmanship concludes in May.
Oil and the Strait of Hormuz
The Iranian conflict has entered its third week with no resolution in sight. The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow 21-mile channel transporting approximately 14 million barrels daily — continues to be obstructed.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps has vowed to prevent “a liter of oil” from traversing the Strait.
Crude briefly exceeded $100 per barrel last Sunday, marking the first triple-digit pricing since Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion. After retreating to the $80s, prices rebounded following drone attacks on critical oil facilities and production curtailments announced by Gulf nations.
Goldman Sachs analysts forecast that a 60-day Strait closure would push fourth quarter Brent crude to an average $93 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate would average $89 under this scenario.
February’s Producer Price Index also releases Wednesday. The January reading revealed wholesale inflation exceeded forecasts.
Micron and the Earnings Lineup
Micron Technology delivers its quarterly results Wednesday. The semiconductor memory manufacturer has seen shares multiply more than fourfold over the past twelve months, fueled by artificial intelligence hardware demand. Last quarter’s performance featured a 60% revenue increase compared to the prior year and exceeded Wall Street earnings projections.
FedEx announces results Thursday. Shares have climbed nearly 25% year-to-date. Market watchers view FedEx shipping data as an important economic barometer.
Dollar Tree’s upcoming report will provide insight into American consumer conditions. Management previously characterized shoppers as “stretched” in recent commentary.
Nuclear energy firm Oklo releases earnings Tuesday. The company recently finalized an agreement with Meta to provide electricity for data center operations.
Alibaba reports Thursday alongside announcements of expanded AI investment plans. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Xpeng delivers its report Friday.
Nvidia’s GTC 2026 conference launches Monday featuring a keynote address from CEO Jensen Huang.
