Key Highlights
- IonQ shares rocketed 21.7% higher on Thursday following an earnings beat and stronger-than-expected 2026 revenue outlook
- 2025 full-year revenue reached $130 million; 2026 projections range from $225 million to $245 million
- The CEO drew parallels between IonQ’s current stage and Nvidia’s early-stage growth phase
- A 256-qubit system is slated for Q4 2026 release; SkyWater Technology acquisition underway
- Street opinions diverge: Rosenblatt maintains $100 buy rating while DA Davidson downgrades to neutral at $35
IonQ delivered Q4 revenue of $61.9 million, propelling its 2025 annual total to $130 million. These numbers exceeded analyst forecasts, sending shares to $40.88 by Thursday’s close — a robust 21.7% single-day gain.
Volume exploded to 66.4 million shares, significantly surpassing the three-month average. This level of activity suggests meaningful institutional participation rather than retail speculation.
Looking ahead to 2026, the quantum computing firm projected revenues between $225 million and $245 million. CEO Niccolo de Masi characterized 2025 as “a strategic and financial inflection point” for the organization.
CFO Inder Singh highlighted that commercial clients represented over 60% of 2025 revenues, while international markets contributed more than 30%. The balance sheet remains solid with $3.3 billion in cash and investment holdings.
De Masi returned to the Nvidia analogy during earnings commentary, noting that the GPU giant once posted $60 million quarterly revenues — comparable to IonQ’s current scale. “There’s room for us to go a long way,” he remarked.
He also identified IBM as the primary competitive threat. “There’s two ecosystems — there’s IBM and there’s the rest of us,” he explained. Gartner previously designated IBM as “the quantum computing company to beat.”
Upcoming 256-Qubit Platform and SkyWater Acquisition
IonQ plans to unveil a 256-qubit production system during Q4 2026. Additionally, the firm revealed it has established quantum-secured communication links throughout Romania’s National Quantum Communication Infrastructure — 36 connections spanning more than 1,500 kilometers.
The company has pursued an aggressive M&A strategy, acquiring businesses focused on atomic clocks, quantum sensing technology, and semiconductor production. The pending SkyWater Technology acquisition would enable vertical integration of chip manufacturing — a strategic shift some analysts view favorably.
Skeptics remain cautious about the expansion velocity. Some market observers question whether rapid scaling at this stage introduces unnecessary execution challenges. The company has not yet achieved annual profitability.
Analyst Perspectives
Wall Street reactions varied following the earnings release. Rosenblatt’s John McPeake maintained his buy recommendation with a $100 price objective. DA Davidson’s Alexander Platt held his neutral stance while reducing his target to $35. Needham’s Quinn Bolton lowered his target to $65.
This divergence captures the fundamental tension: growth enthusiasts are willing to pay premium valuations, but concerns about cash consumption and integration risks from acquisitions like SkyWater keep skeptics cautious.
Over the past year, IonQ has delivered 66% returns, substantially outperforming the Nasdaq Composite’s 23% advance. Competitor D-Wave has surged nearly 270% during this timeframe, while Rigetti has climbed approximately 120%.
D-Wave CEO Alan Baratz warned following his company’s results that stakeholders should anticipate “unpredictable revenue patterns” for the near term. Rosenblatt characterized his firm’s recent quarter as “uneventful,” though bookings remained robust despite a 27% year-over-year revenue decline.
IonQ is set to appear at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 4, with a follow-up presentation at the Cantor Global Technology & Industrial Growth Conference on March 11.
