TLDR
- Intel posts Q4 2025 results Thursday with Street modeling $0.08 EPS (down 38.5%) and $13.40 billion sales (down 6%)
- Jefferies raised target to $45 from $40 but kept Hold, pointing to server gains countered by capacity limits and margin compression
- RBC started coverage at $50 Sector Perform, crediting restructuring wins but flagging weak AI positioning and foundry opacity
- Consensus Hold on 8 Buys, 19 Holds, 4 Sells with $43.37 mean target suggesting 7.64% downside from current price
- Analysts brace for soft guidance as March PC slump looms and production constraints block server revenue capture
Intel Corporation unveils Q4 2025 financials Thursday after market close. The chip manufacturer heads into earnings with shares hovering near yearly peaks after a historic run.
The stock rocketed 116-145% during 2025. A Nvidia tie-up drove enthusiasm. Advances in 18A chip development sustained buying. U.S. government assistance boosted sentiment.
Street estimates point to $0.08 earnings per share. That represents a 38.5% plunge versus last year. Sales forecasts settle at $13.40 billion, marking a 6% annual drop.
Analyst opinion leans cautious entering the report. Hold consensus reflects eight Buy calls, 19 Hold ratings, and four Sell recommendations. The $43.37 average target implies 7.64% downside exposure.
Supply Bottlenecks Threaten Revenue Capture
Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis lifted his price forecast to $45 from $40. He stuck with a Hold stance on the shares. The five-star analyst identifies improving server demand stretching into 2026.
Production capacity poses serious challenges. Intel is redirecting Intel 7/10 manufacturing from budget PCs to older server products. This reallocation creates supply gaps that restrict growth potential.
PC demand appears poised to crack. Curtis sees weakness surfacing in March with mid-single digit percentage declines likely. Rising memory prices could force component downgrades or retail price jumps.
Margin outlook deteriorates on new product launches. Lunar Lake expansion and 18A scaling will eat into profitability. Curtis models margins dipping under 36% against Wall Street’s 36.1% forecast. This translates to a 200 basis point miss versus December expectations.
The analyst braces for disappointing annual guidance. Capacity roadblocks prevent maximum server revenue extraction. PC softness and margin erosion will linger through the year.
Foundry Clarity Remains Elusive
RBC Capital analyst Srini Pajjuri initiated research with a Sector Perform grade and $50 price objective. The five-star analyst applauded leadership for business downsizing and financial statement strengthening.
PC and server order books appear healthy. Product competitive standing continues improving. The Nvidia agreement validates production capabilities.
Near-term headwinds create uncertainty. Higher memory expenses and supply squeezes pose revenue and margin risks. Pajjuri highlighted Intel’s lack of persuasive data center AI plans.
Future gains require margin recovery and foundry advancement. The foundry segment offers minimal visibility with ongoing production setbacks.
Stock Trades Near Ceiling After Surge
Intel changes hands at $48.32, close to its $50.39 yearly high. Present gross margin measures 33.02%. Panther Lake chip production aims for 70% internal manufacturing by first quarter 2026.
Analyst projections range from $20.40 through $60. The vast spread illustrates conflicting perspectives on worth and direction.
The chief executive recently connected with President Trump. Trump spotlighted the sub-2 nanometer CPU launch. Unit Mobileye revealed a $900 million Mentee Robotics deal finishing early 2026.
