TLDR
- Intel slipped 1.3% to $46.18 Tuesday on volume 52% below average, part of a 7% weekly decline.
- Q4 beat on EPS ($0.15 vs $0.08 expected) but revenue fell 4.2% year-over-year to $13.67 billion.
- Foundry yields stuck at 55–65% against an 80–90% industry standard; $12 billion in losses from 2021–2023.
- Consensus rating is “Reduce” with a $45.74 price target; five Buy, twenty-six Hold, six Sell.
- Intel dropped $100M+ into AI platform SambaNova but execution remains the sticking point for analysts.
Intel closed Tuesday at $46.18, down 1.3% on the session. Volume was light — just 63.2 million shares, about half the typical daily average — and the stock touched an intraday low of $45.46.
Zoom out and the picture looks worse. INTC has shed roughly 7% over the past five trading days, with chip sector softness adding to company-specific pressure.
The Q4 report had its bright spots. Intel beat on EPS, posting $0.15 against the $0.08 consensus. Revenue of $13.67 billion also topped the $13.37 billion estimate. But revenue was still 4.2% lower than the year-ago quarter, and Q1 2026 EPS guidance came in at $0.00–$0.00 — a range that left little room for optimism.
Foundry Yields Are the Core Issue
The foundry business continues to be Intel’s biggest headache. Production yields are running at 55–65%, against an industry benchmark of 80–90%. The division lost $12 billion between 2021 and 2023, and the recovery is slow.
CFO David Zinsner was direct on the earnings call, saying Intel lacks the capacity to meet current demand due to what he called “acute internal supply constraints.” Elevated costs for memory chips and substrate wafers are squeezing margins at the same time.
Those constraints are expected to weigh on revenue and earnings through the coming quarters.
Analyst Ratings Reflect the Uncertainty
Wall Street isn’t ready to step in just yet. The consensus rating is “Reduce” with a $45.74 average price target — below Monday’s closing price of $46.79. Five analysts rate it a Buy, twenty-six say Hold, and six say Sell.
DA Davidson opened coverage with a Neutral and a “show-me” reset warning, saying the stock already prices in a lot of good news that hasn’t materialized. Bernstein kept its Neutral for similar reasons. Morgan Stanley raised its target from $38 to $41 but held at Equal Weight.
Intel’s AI Strategy Is Taking Shape
Intel invested over $100 million in SambaNova, an AI software platform, as part of a push to build out its AI ecosystem. The company also revealed progress on its Saimemory project, including a new ZAM prototype aimed at AI-hardware development.
Management is targeting a market where one in two PCs are AI-enabled — a large opportunity if OEM partnerships come through.
On insider activity, EVP April Miller sold 20,000 shares at $49.05 on February 2nd, a 15% reduction in her position. EVP David Zinsner moved the other way, buying 5,882 shares at $42.50 on January 26th.
Intel’s 50-day moving average stands at $43.42. The 200-day is at $36.12. Market cap is $230.67 billion.
