Key Takeaways
- Gold prices remained relatively stable near $5,183 per ounce during Thursday’s trading session
- Upward momentum for gold faces headwinds from elevated US dollar strength and diminishing expectations for Fed rate reductions
- Regional warfare in the Middle East temporarily drove Brent crude oil beyond $100 per barrel, marking a nearly 60% year-to-date surge
- Gold-backed ETF holdings experienced their largest weekly decline in more than two years as market participants liquidated positions
- Silver prices advanced over 1.6% to reach $87.19; BMI analysts project an average price of $93 per ounce throughout 2026
The precious metal continues to maintain elevated price levels, though upward momentum has stalled following the commencement of US-Israeli military operations against Iran on February 28. Market participants are currently weighing safe-haven buying interest against the backdrop of dollar appreciation and diminishing Federal Reserve interest rate cut probabilities.
Spot gold prices showed minimal movement at $5,183.39 per ounce during Thursday’s New York morning session. April-delivery US gold futures contracts advanced 0.2% to settle at $5,190.50. The yellow metal has accumulated approximately 20% in gains year-to-date.
The ongoing military confrontation in the Middle East remains the primary catalyst for market volatility at present. Reports emerged Thursday of two oil tankers engulfed in flames within Iraqi territorial waters, signaling what appears to be an intensification of Iranian strikes targeting regional energy facilities.
Brent crude oil prices momentarily surged beyond the $100 per barrel threshold during Asian market hours. Petroleum prices have appreciated nearly 60% since January. Elevated oil prices translate to increased transportation and manufacturing expenses, contributing to wider inflationary pressures across the economy.
Investors traditionally view gold as a protective measure against currency devaluation and inflation. However, these same inflationary concerns are simultaneously diminishing market expectations for near-term Federal Reserve monetary policy easing. Elevated interest rates enhance the appeal of interest-bearing investments relative to non-yielding assets like gold.
The US dollar index posted gains for its third consecutive trading day on Thursday. Dollar appreciation increases the cost of gold for international purchasers utilizing alternative currencies, potentially suppressing overall demand.
“Gold has been range bound recently. The higher dollar index, rising treasury yields and lack of interest rate cuts are the negative factors, but the conflict in the Middle East has been generating some safe-haven flows,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.
Exchange-Traded Fund Outflows Accelerate
Notwithstanding stable pricing, gold-backed exchange-traded fund inventories declined last week at the fastest pace witnessed in over two years. Market participants have been liquidating gold holdings to generate liquidity for covering shortfalls in other portfolio segments.
Carlyle Group’s Jeff Currie shared with Bloomberg Television his expectation that gold demand will strengthen following resolution of the current conflict. He noted that emerging economy purchasers are increasingly favoring gold over American financial assets to mitigate exposure to potential asset freezes, similar to measures imposed on Russia during 2022.
Other Precious Metals Register Gains
Silver demonstrated superior performance relative to gold on Thursday, appreciating 1.6% to achieve $87.19 per ounce. Silver has surged more than 146% throughout 2025.
BMI’s analytical team projects silver will maintain an average price of $93 per ounce during 2026. Their assessment indicates robust investment appetite should counterbalance softer consumption from solar energy manufacturers and jewelry producers responding to elevated price points.
Spot platinum increased 0.7% to $2,184.00. Palladium advanced 1.6% to $1,666.70.
Core inflation metrics within the United States registered moderate readings at the beginning of the year, according to Thursday’s data release. Nevertheless, forward-looking inflation concerns linked to Middle Eastern hostilities prompted traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate reductions during 2025.
Blue Line Futures’ Streible noted that stabilization or decline in petroleum prices could alleviate pressure on treasury yields and the dollar, potentially creating conditions for gold futures to advance higher.
