TLDR
- First Solar (FSLR) shares plummeted approximately 15% following the company’s 2026 revenue projection of $4.9B-$5.2B, significantly undershooting Wall Street’s consensus of roughly $6.16B.
- Fourth-quarter earnings of $4.84 per share fell short of expectations by $0.30, while quarterly revenue exceeded forecasts at $1.68B versus the anticipated $1.57B.
- The company achieved record fiscal 2025 net sales of $5.2B, representing growth from the previous year’s $4.2B.
- First Solar anticipates tariff-related costs of $125M-$135M in 2026 and highlighted permitting obstacles and policy ambiguity under the current administration.
- The solar manufacturer plans to launch a South Carolina finishing facility in Q4 2026 to address freight expenses and meet domestic content standards.
Shares of First Solar tumbled approximately 15% Wednesday following the release of a 2026 revenue projection that substantially underperformed analyst expectations.
The solar technology manufacturer projected 2026 net sales ranging from $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion. Wall Street consensus had anticipated approximately $6.16 billion, based on FactSet data.
This significant shortfall prompted an immediate negative market reaction.
For the fourth quarter specifically, First Solar delivered earnings of $4.84 per share, missing the consensus estimate by $0.30. Quarterly revenue climbed 11% year-over-year to reach $1.68 billion, surpassing analyst projections of $1.57 billion.
Despite the quarterly revenue outperformance, the earnings shortfall combined with disappointing forward guidance triggered the stock’s decline.
Full-year 2025 performance actually demonstrated strength. Net sales reached an all-time high of $5.2 billion, up from $4.2 billion in 2024, propelled by increased module shipment volumes. Annual earnings totaled $14.21 per share.
Prior to Tuesday’s earnings release, FSLR had declined nearly 7% year-to-date, despite posting gains exceeding 55% over the preceding twelve months.
Current Administration’s Policies Create Uncertainty
The company openly addressed the factors constraining its 2026 outlook: the prevailing U.S. regulatory landscape.
First Solar indicated its guidance reflects the assumption that existing policies will continue. President Trump has implemented new 15% tariffs on specific imports with a 150-day duration, supplementing already-existing aluminum and steel import duties.
The company projects total tariff-related expenses between $125 million and $135 million for the current year.
Permitting bottlenecks and a halt on significant project authorizations under the present administration are impacting the entire solar industry. The Trump administration’s energy strategy has emphasized oil, gas, coal, and nuclear power — marking a distinct departure from the renewable energy priorities that characterized the Biden era.
Demand for First Solar’s Series 6 modules — manufactured in Malaysia and Vietnam for utility-scale solar installations — faces constraints within this policy framework.
Domestic Production Expansion Seeks to Mitigate Challenges
To address tariff vulnerabilities, First Solar is establishing a new finishing facility in South Carolina, scheduled to become operational in Q4 2026.
This facility will utilize components manufactured at the company’s Southeast Asian production sites but complete final assembly domestically, helping to reduce freight expenses, tariff exposure, and satisfy domestic content mandates.
CEO Mark Widmar emphasized the company’s strategy during this challenging period: “As we navigated a rapidly evolving environment, we maintained a disciplined approach to contracting and remained anchored in our core principle of pricing and delivery certainty.”
First Solar also brought a new Louisiana manufacturing facility online in 2025 and has committed to constructing an additional plant in South Carolina.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Christopher Dendrinos characterized the disappointing 2026 outlook as a “clearing event” that could set the stage for volume growth recovery in 2027 — assuming no additional tariff measures are implemented.
Citi analyst Vikram Bagri was more direct: “First Solar is well understood to be a 2027 story with several positive catalysts on the way.”
During premarket trading Wednesday, FSLR declined as much as 16.7%.
