TLDR
- Enphase Energy posted Q4 earnings of 71 cents per share on $343 million revenue, beating forecasts of 59 cents and $338 million
- Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $270-$300 million topped Wall Street’s $269 million estimate
- Q4 sell-through demand surged 21% year-over-year, marking the strongest performance in two years
- European sales fell 29% while tariffs sliced 5.1 percentage points off margins
- Multiple analysts upgraded ratings and raised price targets following the report
Enphase Energy shares rocketed 24% higher Wednesday morning after the solar equipment company delivered fourth-quarter results that crushed analyst expectations. The stock hit $46.20 in premarket trading.
The company posted adjusted earnings of 71 cents per share on revenue of $343 million. Analysts had expected just 59 cents per share on $338 million in sales. Revenue dropped 10% from last year, but the beat on both metrics excited investors.
The real catalyst? Forward guidance that shows business stabilizing.
Enphase expects between $270 million and $300 million in revenue for the current quarter. The midpoint beats Wall Street’s $269 million consensus. That’s a signal that demand is holding up better than feared.
Demand Reaches Two-Year High
The company revealed Q4 sell-through demand jumped 21% compared to last year. This marked the strongest showing in over two years.
Homeowners raced to install solar and battery systems before Section 25D tax credits expired at year-end. That created a rush of demand that powered Enphase’s quarter.
TD Cowen analyst Jeff Osborne bumped his price target from $35 to $40. He maintained a Hold rating but noted revenue should bottom in Q1 before recovering. New product launches and clearer interest rate direction could fuel Q2 replenishment, he said.
Northland kept its Outperform rating with a $62 price target. The firm projects the solar sector hits bottom in Q1 2026, with Enphase building momentum throughout the year as new products roll out.
Challenges Remain for Solar Maker
European revenue dropped 29% year-over-year due to weaker demand. That’s a problem for international growth.
Trump administration tariffs also stung. The reciprocal tariffs cut Enphase’s margin by 5.1 percentage points in the quarter. That’s real money coming off the bottom line.
Still, analysts see light ahead. Northland expects high electricity costs and grid reliability worries to push consumers toward solar plus storage. That makes Enphase a “top pick” for 2026.
RBC Capital upgraded the stock from Sector Perform to Outperform with a $54 target. The firm cited demand recovery in residential solar. BMO Capital moved from Underperform to Market Perform on improved guidance. Oppenheimer lifted its target to $68, highlighting bidirectional charging tech potential for data centers.
New products could drive the next leg higher. Enphase plans to launch a new storage solution, iQ9 GaN-enabled microinverter, bidirectional EV charger, and meter collar.
Other solar names rallied Wednesday. Sunrun climbed 5.2% in premarket trading. Nextpower gained 3.5%.
Solar stocks crashed last year when Trump’s tax bill cut clean-energy subsidies. But the sector has recovered in recent months. The Q4 surge in installations before credits expired helped Enphase post its strongest demand in two years.
