TLDR
- A military correspondent in Israel faced death threats from users on Polymarket attempting to manipulate his coverage of an Iranian missile attack
- Bettors staked more than $17 million on a prediction contract questioning whether Iran attacked Israel on March 10
- Emanuel Fabian, the reporter involved, contacted law enforcement and maintained his original reporting
- The platform terminated associated accounts and forwarded user information to law enforcement
- Congressional representatives have put forward the “Death Bets Act” aimed at prohibiting prediction markets on warfare and political killings
A defense correspondent in Israel became the target of intimidation from users of Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction platform, following his coverage of an Iranian missile attack near Beit Shemesh on March 10, 2026.
Emanuel Fabian, who covers military affairs for The Times of Israel, published a report stating that an Iranian missile impacted an unpopulated zone close to the city. His article became pivotal in settling a $17 million wager on Polymarket regarding whether Iran had attacked Israeli territory on that specific date.
The betting contract’s terms specified that the outcome would be “yes” if Iran executed a missile launch, drone operation, or aerial bombardment on Israeli land. However, an additional provision stated that intercepted projectiles would not qualify for a “yes” resolution.
Users who had bet against the strike occurring started reaching out to Fabian, attempting to coerce him into modifying his article to indicate the missile had been intercepted instead of making ground contact.
Fabian reported receiving communications through email, telephone, and various messaging services demanding alterations to his published report.
An individual known only as “Haim” sent intimidating communications in Hebrew, threatening Fabian with harm he had “never imagined,” claiming he had created “enemies who will be willing to pay anything to make your life miserable,” and vowing they would “finish” him.
Haim additionally disclosed private information concerning Fabian’s relatives and residential location.
Fabian filed an official complaint with law enforcement, prompting them to launch a formal inquiry.
Another journalist from a separate news organization informed Fabian that someone had contacted them proposing a portion of potential winnings if they could convince Fabian to revise his story.
Fabian rejected every attempt at manipulation and emphasized that his journalism relied on official statements from Israeli emergency response teams and defense establishment sources.
Polymarket Bans Accounts, Authorities Notified
Polymarket issued a public statement on X denouncing the conduct as “a violation of our Terms of Service” and confirmed it had permanently suspended every account connected to the harassment. The organization indicated it would provide user data to appropriate law enforcement agencies.
The Israeli military subsequently verified that the projectile that landed near Beit Shemesh had not been intercepted, corroborating Fabian’s initial reporting.
US Lawmakers Move to Restrict War-Linked Prediction Markets
This incident has intensified an existing congressional discussion surrounding prediction markets connected to armed conflict and international crises.
Senator Adam Schiff alongside Representative Mike Levin have put forward the “Death Bets Act,” legislation that would prohibit prediction market contracts associated with military conflicts, political murders, or death-related events.
Senator Chris Murphy has independently suggested banning contracts connected to governmental military operations after blockchain investigation company Bubblemaps discovered digital wallets that generated approximately $1 million wagering on American military action against Iran moments before such strikes occurred.
Polymarket has also recently discontinued a betting market that allowed speculation on whether a nuclear device would detonate during the current year following widespread online backlash.
Notwithstanding the backlash, transaction volumes remain robust. Kalshi processed approximately $10.4 billion in trading activity during February 2026. Polymarket handled roughly $7.9 billion throughout the identical timeframe.
Both platforms combined are projected to achieve a seventh straight month of record activity with approximately $20 billion in aggregate trading volume.
