Key Takeaways
- Analysts project Q4 revenue will reach $1.55 billion, marking a 101% increase from the prior year, alongside an anticipated net loss of $342 million.
- The company’s remaining performance obligations (RPO) are expected to grow to $60–$65 billion from $55 billion in the previous quarter.
- Nvidia has committed $2 billion in equity capital to CoreWeave, deepening their strategic relationship.
- The AI infrastructure provider maintains approximately $19 billion in combined debt and lease obligations to support data center expansion.
- Shares have surged 148% from the March IPO price, though they declined 21% and 16% following the previous two quarterly reports.
CoreWeave’s Q4 earnings announcement on Thursday arrives at a pivotal moment for the company.
CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock, CRWV
The cloud infrastructure specialist focused on AI workloads has delivered impressive returns, climbing roughly 40% year-to-date and posting 148% gains since going public in March. However, past earnings releases paint a more volatile picture.
Following both previous quarterly announcements, shares experienced significant selloffs — dropping 21% after one report and 16% after another. This pattern has created heightened anticipation among market participants.
Consensus estimates from Wall Street analysts point to Q4 revenue of $1.55 billion, representing a doubling from the same period last year. Analysts also anticipate a net loss of $342 million, based on FactSet data.
The expanding losses stem primarily from interest costs associated with CoreWeave’s substantial debt position. The firm reported approximately $19 billion in combined debt and lease obligations at the close of Q3.
The company’s growth strategy is bold yet straightforward: leverage long-term customer commitments to secure financing, construct data center capacity, generate income, and repeat. So far, this approach has proven effective.
CoreWeave’s contracted revenue pipeline, measured as remaining performance obligations, exceeded $55 billion in the most recent quarter. Jefferies analyst Brent Thill anticipates this metric will reach $60–$65 billion for Q4, with stronger momentum expected during early 2026.
Major clients include Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and OpenAI — an impressive roster that provides creditors with reassurance when extending additional financing.
Nvidia Strengthens Strategic Alliance
In recent weeks, Nvidia disclosed a $2 billion equity commitment to CoreWeave alongside an enhanced partnership agreement. Nvidia already serves multiple roles — silicon provider, service consumer, and investor — and has now added strategic capital partner to that list.
Citi analyst Tyler Radke highlighted that Nvidia will function as “a high-investment-grade counterparty” to assist CoreWeave in obtaining land, power capacity, and data center infrastructure on more favorable terms. Jefferies characterized the arrangement as a “force multiplier.”
Industry observers view this investment as a mechanism to reduce CoreWeave’s capital costs, which have presented challenges for the organization.
Financial Leverage Remains a Focus
The company’s trajectory hasn’t been entirely seamless. CoreWeave reduced its 2025 annual revenue forecast during the last quarter following delays in data center deployment, revising expectations downward from $5.15–$5.25 billion to $5.05–$5.15 billion.
Just last Friday, shares declined following media reports claiming that Blue Owl, an alternative asset manager, faced difficulty syndicating CoreWeave data center debt to institutional lenders — despite Nvidia’s involvement. Both CoreWeave and Blue Owl disputed the characterization.
Further complexity comes from Magnetar, CoreWeave’s most significant early backer. At the time of the public offering, Magnetar controlled 96 million shares — approximately one-fifth of outstanding stock. Following the expiration of lock-up provisions in August, the firm began gradually reducing its position. By year-end December, holdings stood at 68 million shares, which still constituted roughly half of Magnetar’s portfolio value.
Full-year 2025 revenue projections stand at $5.11 billion. Market participants will be closely monitoring any 2026 guidance regarding revenue targets and capital spending plans when CoreWeave releases results on Thursday.
