TLDR
- Coinbase price target cut to $290 from $399 by JPMorgan as Q4 earnings approach Thursday with weak crypto fundamentals
- COIN shares down 27% year-to-date and over 50% from bitcoin’s October peak above $126,000
- Q4 EBITDA expected at $734M versus $801M in Q3 with spot trading volume projected at $263B
- Subscription revenue forecast at $670M, missing company guidance of $710M-$790M on lower staking yields
- CFO sold $56.5M in stock February 6 as analysts warn retail engagement at weakest levels since Q3 2024
Coinbase reports fourth-quarter earnings Thursday after the close. Wall Street isn’t optimistic. The crypto exchange faces multiple headwinds as trading volumes dry up and prices soften.
JPMorgan’s Ken Worthington just slashed his price target on COIN to $290. That’s down from $399 previously. He maintains his Overweight rating but acknowledges the deteriorating environment.
The stock trades around $165 currently. That means Worthington still sees 75% upside potential. But shareholders have already absorbed brutal losses this year.
COIN has dropped 27% in 2026 alone. The decline extends to more than 50% since bitcoin hit its record above $126,000 in October.
Earnings Projections Point Lower
Worthington projects Q4 adjusted EBITDA at $734 million. That represents a sharp sequential decline from $801 million in the third quarter.
Lower crypto prices and reduced trading activity drive the weakness. The analyst estimates spot crypto volume of $263 billion for the period.
USDC stablecoin revenue faces pressure too. Worthington models just $312 million from stablecoin operations as circulation slows.
The Deribit acquisition provides some cushion. Coinbase bought the derivatives platform in August. JPMorgan expects it to generate $117 million in revenue on $586 billion in trading volume.
Total transaction revenue should reach $1.06 billion. That’s only marginally higher than last quarter’s $1 billion despite a full quarter of Deribit contributions.
Subscription and services look particularly weak. JPMorgan forecasts $670 million, well short of Coinbase’s $710 million to $790 million guidance range.
Lower crypto prices hurt this segment across the board. Staking yields have compressed. USDC growth has stalled. Management may cut operating expenses to offset revenue shortfalls.
Multiple Firms Express Caution
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish sits about 10% below Street consensus on EBITDA. He’s especially concerned about retail trading and blockchain rewards.
Budish estimates Coinbase volume at roughly $261 billion. He noted Robinhood’s retail crypto volumes fell 15% sequentially. Those figures typically correlate closely with Coinbase performance.
Compass Point takes the most negative view. Analyst Ed Engel expects subscription revenue to disappoint significantly. He believes results will confirm that revenue remains heavily dependent on crypto price movements.
Engel also warns that January trading revenue suggests the weakest retail engagement since Q3 2024. That sets up poorly for the current quarter.
Insider Activity Before Results
CFO Alesia Haas executed a major stock sale on February 6. She sold 362,600 shares for $56.5 million total.
The transactions occurred at prices ranging from $152.10 to $156.72 per share. Haas used a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan for the sales.
The proceeds covered exercise costs, fees and tax obligations from stock option exercises. She exercised options on 78,433 shares at $18.13 each. She also exercised options on 617,668 shares at $6.97.
Haas converted an additional 617,668 Class B shares into Class A stock. The sale came just days before the earnings release.
Thursday’s call will focus on several key areas. Investors want clarity on early 2026 trading trends. USDC revenue sustainability remains questionable given declining circulation.
The performance of newer initiatives like Deribit matters too. These platforms need to demonstrate they can offset volatility in spot markets. Otherwise Coinbase remains too exposed to crypto price swings. The company is valued at approximately $44 billion currently.
