TLDR
- Coca-Cola stock fell 4% premarket Tuesday as Q4 revenue of $11.82 billion came in below the $12.03 billion estimate
- Company forecasts 4-5% organic revenue growth for 2026, missing Wall Street’s 5.3% projection and slowing from 2025’s 5%
- Full-year volume growth was flat despite 4% price increases as inflation-hit consumers pulled back on soda spending
- Asia-Pacific volumes stayed flat in Q4 as regional beverage brands capture more market share from global names
- Adjusted EPS of 58 cents beat the 56-cent estimate, but weak revenue overshadowed the earnings beat
Coca-Cola stock dropped nearly 4% in premarket trading Tuesday after the company reported fourth-quarter results that missed revenue expectations.
The beverage giant posted Q4 revenue of $11.82 billion. Analysts had projected $12.03 billion.
Soda demand weakened in North America and Asia during the quarter. The shortfall raises concerns about the company’s ability to sustain growth.
Coca-Cola’s 2026 revenue guidance disappointed investors further. The company expects organic revenue to grow 4-5% this year.
Wall Street had anticipated 5.3% growth. The forecast also marks a deceleration from 2025’s 5% increase.
“The forecast reads conservative, but is appropriate for the start of the year,” Jefferies analyst Kaumil Gajrawala said. “Street likely wanted more.”
Pricing Strategy Backfires on Volume
Coca-Cola raised prices 4% throughout 2025 to offset rising input costs. But the strategy has pressured budget-conscious consumers.
Unit case volumes increased just 1% in the fourth quarter. That matched the previous three months’ performance.
Volumes were flat for the entire year. Pricing alone carried the company’s financial results.
PepsiCo revealed plans last week to cut prices on snacks like Lay’s and Doritos. Consumers have resisted multiple rounds of price increases over recent years.
The challenges arrive as Coca-Cola prepares for a leadership change. Henrique Braun will become CEO on March 31.
Regional Brands Gain Ground in Asia
Coca-Cola delivered adjusted earnings of 58 cents per share. That topped analyst expectations of 56 cents per share.
But the revenue miss overshadowed the earnings beat. Volume trends in key markets remain troubling.
Asia-Pacific volumes stayed flat during the quarter. Regional beverage brands continue winning customers from established global players.
The company is shifting its product portfolio to match evolving consumer preferences. Zero-sugar sodas, sports drinks, and bottled teas are receiving greater focus.
Appetite-suppressing weight-loss drugs have accelerated demand for lower-calorie beverages. Coca-Cola has invested in offerings like protein-infused Fairlife milk to appeal to health-conscious shoppers.
The company projects 7-8% adjusted profit per share growth for 2026. Analysts had expected 7.9% growth.
Coca-Cola stock has climbed approximately 12% in 2025 despite Tuesday’s decline. The stock has delivered stronger returns than PepsiCo in recent years.
Fourth-quarter unit case volumes rose 1% year-over-year, matching growth from the third quarter.
