TLDR
- Cantor Fitzgerald slashed Block’s price target from $87 to $70, keeping an Overweight rating, citing weaker GPV growth and payment sector multiple compression
- Block flagged a Q4 Square GPV slowdown due to October weather events and tough holiday comparisons
- Citi trimmed its target to $85 from $105, maintaining a Buy rating, still expecting 19% gross profit growth
- Nine analysts have cut earnings estimates ahead of Block’s February 26 earnings report
- Block stock has fallen over 40% in the past year, though InvestingPro flags it as undervalued at current levels
Block is walking into its February 26 earnings report with some extra baggage. Two Wall Street firms have trimmed their price targets in recent weeks, and nine analysts have already cut their earnings estimates.
Cantor Fitzgerald moved first on Monday, dropping its target from $87 to $70 while holding its Overweight rating. Even at $70, that’s a 40% premium to where the stock trades now, around $50.
The cut followed management commentary at an investor conference, where Block flagged a sequential slowdown in fourth-quarter Square GPV. The company blamed October weather events and a tough holiday spending comparison for the expected dip.
Cantor revised its Seller GPV growth estimate down to roughly 10.0%. Morgan Stanley had made a similar call, adjusting its Q4 Square Seller GPV growth forecast to 10.3% year-over-year.
Multiple Compression Adds Pressure
Cantor also pointed to valuation multiple compression across the payments sector as a reason for the reset. The new $70 target uses roughly 14 times the firm’s 2027 EPS estimate of $4.46, blended with a DCF analysis. The previous $87 target had applied a 17x multiple to the same earnings figure.
Citi analyst Bryan Keane followed on February 5, cutting his target to $85 from $105 while keeping a Buy rating. Keane said Citi still expects Block to deliver 19% gross profit growth in Q4 2025.
Truist analyst Matthew Coad nudged his target up slightly to $72 from $68 on January 20, maintaining a Hold. He flagged that tough year-over-year comparisons could cap volume upside, and warned that some FinTech management teams may reset 2026 guidance below Street expectations.
Business Momentum Holds Up
Away from the analyst noise, Block’s underlying business has shown some real progress. The company crossed $200 billion in cumulative lending through Cash App Borrow, Afterpay, and Square Loans. Its underwriting technology, which uses near real-time behavioral data, reportedly approves 38% more loans at the same loss rates compared to traditional models.
Block also rolled out an upgraded Square Register running 40% faster, powered by a new processor and more memory.
On the leadership front, Chief Accounting Officer Ajmere Dale is departing in February. Amrita Ahuja steps in as Interim Principal Accounting Officer during the search for a permanent replacement.
Block reports Q4 2025 earnings on February 26.
