TLDR
- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes refuses to invest in Bitcoin at current levels, preferring to wait for Federal Reserve monetary policy changes
- BTC is currently valued at approximately $69,926, representing a 45% decline from its October peak of $126,000
- Hayes cautions that escalating US-Iran conflict could spark sell-offs across equity and cryptocurrency markets
- He emphasizes that central bank money printing—not military conflict—benefits Bitcoin, and he’ll buy when quantitative easing resumes
- Despite maintaining a $250,000 long-term BTC forecast, Hayes identifies significant short-term downside possibilities
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has made it clear: he wouldn’t invest even a dollar in Bitcoin at current market conditions. During an appearance on Natalie Brunell’s Coin Stories podcast, Hayes revealed he’s holding off until receiving definitive signals from the United States Federal Reserve.
“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes said.
Arthur Hayes, in an interview with CoinStories, stated that if he only had $1 to invest right now, he would not choose to buy Bitcoin. Instead, he would wait for the Federal Reserve to begin easing monetary policy and printing more money before entering the market. Hayes also…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) March 11, 2026
Bitcoin’s current trading price hovers around $69,926. This represents a substantial 45% decrease from the cryptocurrency’s October all-time high of $126,000.
Hayes identified the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran as a primary factor behind his cautious stance. According to him, prolonged conflict increases the probability that the Federal Reserve will expand its balance sheet.
“The longer this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine,” he said.
Hayes drew an important distinction regarding war’s impact on cryptocurrency. While some market participants claim military conflicts benefit Bitcoin, Hayes challenges this interpretation.
“Money printing is good for Bitcoin,” he said. “That’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin — when the central banks start printing money.”
Downside Risk Still on the Table
Hayes also issued a warning that Bitcoin could tumble beneath the $60,000 threshold if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. Such a move could initiate widespread forced liquidations.
Bitcoin momentarily touched the $60,000 mark on February 6 before experiencing a modest recovery. Hayes believes the current valuation still allows room for additional downward movement.
He suggested that an extended risk-off sentiment in equity markets could pull Bitcoin lower in tandem. A comprehensive market selloff, according to Hayes, might trigger cascading liquidations throughout the cryptocurrency sector.
Other Analysts More Optimistic
Hayes’ conservative outlook isn’t universally shared among market observers. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe recently highlighted a robust Nasdaq rally as an encouraging indicator for Bitcoin.
Van de Poppe said there are “not many arguments left for uncertainty” and expects more upside for Bitcoin and altcoins in the near term.
Hayes hasn’t dismissed the possibility of a market recovery. He indicated that he doesn’t anticipate many additional years where Bitcoin remains below the $100,000 threshold.
His ambitious long-term projection of $250,000 per Bitcoin continues unchanged. Hayes has publicly maintained this forecast since at least late last year.
Hayes clarified that his cautious positioning stems entirely from macroeconomic considerations, not from skepticism about Bitcoin’s fundamental long-term prospects.
He stressed that the critical variable to monitor is the timing of central bank policy shifts from monetary tightening to accommodative measures. That transition point, according to Hayes, will mark his re-entry into the market.
Bitcoin momentarily reached the $60,000 threshold on February 6 before entering a modest upward trajectory, currently positioned near $69,926.
