TLDR
- ASML stock rose 6.7% to $1,273.88 with volume up 8% as multiple analysts upgraded ratings
- Q3 earnings beat at $6.41 per share versus $6.27 expected but revenue missed at $8.80 billion
- Consensus rating is Moderate Buy with $1,270.67 average price target and some targets at $1,500
- Quarterly dividend raised to $1.857 per share with 0.6% annualized yield
- High-NA EUV systems at $380 million each secured orders from Intel and Samsung for production
ASML shares climbed 6.7% during Friday trading, closing at $1,273.88 after reaching an intraday high of $1,282.00. Volume increased 8% above the daily average with 2.3 million shares traded.
The semiconductor equipment maker received multiple analyst upgrades this week. Sanford C. Bernstein moved ASML from hold to buy on Monday.
Erste Group Bank upgraded the stock from hold to buy in September. HSBC Global Research assigned a strong-buy rating in October.
Wall Street consensus now stands at Moderate Buy across 28 analysts. Three analysts rate it Strong Buy, 18 give Buy ratings, and seven maintain Hold positions.
The average price target sits at $1,270.67. Some analysts set targets as high as $1,500 for 2026.
Earnings Results and Dividend
ASML reported Q3 earnings on October 15 with EPS of $6.41 per share. This beat analyst expectations of $6.27 by $0.14.
Revenue came in at $8.80 billion for the quarter. Analysts had projected $8.99 billion in revenue.
Year-over-year revenue grew 0.7% compared to Q3 2024. Return on equity reached 47.74% with net margin at 27.08%.
The company raised its quarterly dividend to $1.857 per share. The annualized dividend of $7.43 represents a 0.6% yield.
High-NA EUV Production Begins
High-NA EUV lithography systems cost $380 million each. These machines create chip features nearly twice as small as current EUV systems.
Intel completed acceptance testing for its first High-NA systems. Samsung began receiving deliveries for upcoming 2nm foundry lines.
The technology enables 1.4nm and 1nm chip node production. ASML remains the only manufacturer of these tools worldwide.
China Sales Decline Offset by Memory Demand
Chinese customers represented over 40% of sales during 2024-2025. Export restrictions now limit shipments of EUV and high-end DUV systems to China.
Management expects Chinese revenue to decline in 2026. However, total 2026 sales should match or exceed 2025 levels.
Taiwan, U.S., and South Korea demand will offset China slowdown. AI-driven high-bandwidth memory demand is boosting orders from SK Hynix and Micron.
Memory manufacturers now provide a second growth driver beyond logic chip customers. TSMC’s 2nm node is fully booked for 2026.
Big Tech plans to invest over $400 billion in AI infrastructure this year. ASML trades at 45x forward 2026 earnings.
The company maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14 with $501 billion market cap. The 50-day moving average sits at $1,070.79 and 200-day average at $921.09.
