TLDR
- Bernstein upgraded ASML to Outperform with a price target raised from €800 to €1,300 on January 5, 2026.
- The stock jumped 7% on NASDAQ, trading near $1,277 and hitting a new 52-week high around $1,280.
- Three major DRAM manufacturers plan to add 250,000 wafers per month of new capacity in 2026.
- ASML benefits from 28% higher lithography intensity for 1c DRAM nodes compared to previous 20-24% rates.
- TSMC is expanding 3nm capacity to 180-200,000 wafers monthly to meet AI chip demand.
ASML Holding shares surged 7% on Thursday, closing near $1,277 and marking a fresh 52-week high. The rally followed a Bernstein upgrade that sent ripples through semiconductor markets.
On January 5, Bernstein analyst David Dai raised ASML from Market Perform to Outperform. The firm lifted its price target from €800 to €1,300, representing a 62% increase.
The upgrade wasn’t just about numbers. Bernstein named ASML its top pick among European semiconductor stocks for 2026.
Dai pointed to accelerating memory investment as the primary catalyst. He said investors are underestimating production plans from the three largest DRAM manufacturers.
These producers could add 250,000 wafers per month of greenfield capacity in 2026. That’s a massive expansion in a single year.
The capacity additions aren’t happening in a vacuum. Manufacturers are also speeding up their transition to the 1c node technology.
This matters for ASML because lithography intensity for 1c nodes runs at 28%. Previous nodes only required 20-24% intensity.
Higher intensity means more equipment sales per wafer produced. It’s a straightforward revenue multiplier for ASML.
Memory Chips Drive the Thesis
The memory market recovery forms the core of Bernstein’s bullish case. DRAM manufacturers are investing heavily after a period of restraint.
Dai specifically called out reduced near-term risk from DRAM technology changes. The transition path looks clearer now than it did six months ago.
Memory isn’t the only growth driver. Advanced logic production is ramping up across the industry.
TSMC plans to expand 3nm capacity to 180-200,000 wafers per month. The expansion directly addresses AI data center demand.
Both trends point to what Bernstein calls “big years for EUV and for ASML” in 2026 and 2027. EUV lithography is ASML’s crown jewel technology.
AI Infrastructure Fuels Equipment Demand
The stock now trades at $1,277 with a market cap just under $495 billion. Trading volume came in slightly above recent averages.
ASML’s intraday high reached $1,279.80, establishing a new one-year peak. The 52-week range runs from roughly $578 to $1,280.
The company’s 50-day moving average sits around $1,071. The 200-day moving average is even lower at $855.
That gap shows how quickly sentiment has shifted. The stock has moved well ahead of its technical averages.
ASML holds a virtual monopoly in advanced lithography equipment. No other company can produce extreme ultraviolet lithography machines at scale.
This positioning supports a premium valuation of roughly 45x forward 2026 earnings. Investors are willing to pay up for exclusive technology.
The broader semiconductor sector is rallying alongside ASML. TSMC, Samsung, and Micron have all posted gains on AI infrastructure expectations.
Memory pricing showed an uptrend in 2025 that’s expected to continue through 2026. Higher prices encourage the capacity investments that drive ASML’s equipment sales.
The current rally is driven by expectations rather than reported results. ASML hasn’t released new earnings data this week.
Investors are pricing in sustained capital expenditure from foundries and memory makers through 2027. The bet is on multi-year growth in AI-related chip manufacturing.
