TLDR
- Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded Alphabet to Overweight with $370 price target, up from $310
- Gemini AI market share grew to 20% from 6% while ChatGPT dropped to 65% from 85% in one year
- Alphabet market cap hit $3.89 trillion, briefly surpassing Apple for first time since 2019
- Stock up 66% in 12 months, now trading at 28.6 times forward earnings
- Analysts cite Google’s search, maps, and payment data integration as key competitive advantage
Alphabet stock rose over 2% Wednesday after Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded shares to Overweight from Neutral. The firm raised its price target to $370 from $310.
Shares traded at $324.51 in premarket hours Thursday. The stock has gained 66% over the past 12 months.
The upgrade reflects growing confidence in Google’s Gemini AI platform. Market share data shows Gemini now captures over 20% of the AI assistant market, up from less than 6% one year ago.
ChatGPT’s share fell to under 65% from roughly 85% in the same period. OpenAI still leads with 900 million weekly active users versus Gemini’s 650 million monthly active users.
Google’s Data Integration Edge
Cantor analyst Deepak Mathivanan says Google’s decade of search technology investment gives Gemini a competitive advantage. The company can integrate data from search, maps, and payment systems into its AI assistant.
This matters as AI moves toward practical applications. Users will likely choose one primary AI agent to handle multistep tasks.
“Google’s unique competitive advantage in grounding user AI queries is likely to help the company advance these integrations in select categories, such as retail, more seamlessly,” Mathivanan wrote.
Google launched its Nano Banana image tool in August and Gemini 3 model in November. Both releases attracted users from competitors.
Market Cap Tops Apple
Alphabet’s market cap reached $3.89 trillion Wednesday while Apple dropped to $3.86 trillion. This marks the first time since 2019 that Alphabet held a higher valuation than Apple.
The shift reflects investor confidence in Google’s AI strategy. Jefferies analysts noted stronger engagement and rising downloads from AI features across Google’s consumer apps.
Apple hasn’t launched a major AI platform since Apple Intelligence in 2024. The company lags behind rivals in AI development.
Alphabet has multiple growth drivers beyond AI. Ad sales remain steady while cloud revenue expands. The company develops custom tensor processing units to compete with Nvidia in AI computing.
Alphabet now trades at 28.6 times forward earnings versus its five-year average of 21.7 times. Cantor’s $370 price target assumes a 30 times price-to-earnings ratio based on blended fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings.
Alphabet shares climbed more than 2% Wednesday, pushing market cap to $3.89 trillion and briefly surpassing Apple’s $3.86 trillion valuation.
