Key Takeaways
- Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings from Snowflake will be released after the closing bell on February 25
- The options market anticipates approximately 13% volatility following the earnings announcement
- Major firms including TD Cowen, Morgan Stanley, and Citi revised their targets down to $270 while maintaining Buy recommendations
- Year-to-date performance shows SNOW declining 21.4%, influenced by widespread concerns about AI’s impact on the SaaS industry
- A significant $200 million partnership agreement with OpenAI was announced on February 2
Investors are preparing for Snowflake’s (SNOW) fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results, scheduled for release on Wednesday, February 25, following the market’s close.
The cloud data platform provider has experienced significant headwinds in early 2026, with shares declining 21.4% since the year began. The stock took a particularly harsh hit following its third-quarter announcement, plummeting 30% despite exceeding earnings projections, as investors grew increasingly nervous about artificial intelligence’s potential to disrupt traditional software companies.
For the upcoming quarter, Wall Street analysts project adjusted earnings per share of $0.27, representing a decline from the $0.30 reported in the corresponding quarter last year. Meanwhile, revenue projections point to robust growth of 27.8% year-over-year, reaching an estimated $1.26 billion.
It’s worth noting that Snowflake has surpassed earnings estimates in seven out of the previous eight quarterly reports — establishing a strong track record that makes positive surprises almost expected.
The derivatives market is signaling significant movement ahead, with options pricing suggesting a potential swing of approximately 12.79% in either direction once results are announced. This expected volatility is remarkably higher than the company’s typical post-earnings movement of 6.7% averaged across the last four quarters.
Clearly, market participants are anticipating something significant.
Wall Street Adjusts Expectations
Ahead of the earnings release, three prominent Wall Street firms reduced their price objectives, converging on an identical figure: $270.
TD Cowen analyst Derrick Wood maintained his Buy recommendation while highlighting encouraging trends in user growth metrics, data consumption volumes, workload migration patterns, and AI inference usage. Wood emphasized that Snowflake appears relatively insulated from the AI disruption concerns plaguing many software competitors.
Morgan Stanley analyst Sanjit Singh similarly preserved his Buy stance with a $270 price objective. His proprietary research indicated resilient demand trends despite the broader software sector selloff, positioning the current valuation as an attractive opportunity for the year ahead. Singh also identified Elastic (ESTC) as another compelling pre-earnings investment alongside Snowflake.
Citi analyst Tyler Radke reduced his target from $300 to $270, attributing the adjustment to widespread valuation compression throughout the software industry. Radke characterized the 30% decline following Q3 results as excessive and praised Snowflake’s consumption-driven business model as “one of the stronger AI-proof consumption business models” available.
Strategic OpenAI Collaboration
Earlier this month, on February 2, Snowflake unveiled a substantial multi-year partnership valued at $200 million with OpenAI. This strategic arrangement will enable Snowflake’s extensive customer base of 12,600 organizations worldwide to leverage OpenAI’s advanced models directly through Cortex AI, the company’s integrated platform for generative artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities.
The collaboration encompasses implementation across Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform.
According to TipRanks’ consensus rating system, SNOW receives a Strong Buy designation, supported by 31 Buy recommendations and 3 Hold ratings. The average analyst price target stands at $269.86, suggesting potential upside of approximately 56.4% from current trading levels.
Snowflake’s fourth-quarter financial results are scheduled for release after Wednesday’s market close on February 25.
