Key Takeaways
- Robinhood stock has recovered approximately 33% from March lows but still trades 23% below year-start levels
- Bernstein maintains Outperform rating with $130 target, suggesting potential 50% gain from current pricing
- Analyst Gautam Chhugani argues that disappointing Q1 results are already reflected in share price
- 2026 crypto revenue projections stand 31% higher than Street estimates; prediction market forecasts 30% above consensus
- Prediction market revenue expected to climb 286% annually to approximately $586 million by 2026
Robinhood’s stock performance has been challenging lately. Shares have plunged 53% from the 52-week peak of $153.86 and are down 23% year-to-date. Diminished trading activity, weakening crypto revenues, and an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop have weighed on investor sentiment.
Yet Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani remains firmly optimistic.
Ahead of Robinhood’s Q1 2026 earnings release scheduled for April 28, he’s maintaining his Outperform rating alongside a $130 price objective. With shares currently trading near $71.67, this target represents approximately 50% potential upside.
Chhugani’s central thesis is straightforward: disappointing first-quarter performance is already priced into shares, positioning the market to focus on future prospects.
Cryptocurrency Resurgence as Primary Growth Engine
Chhugani maintains that Bitcoin has likely established its bottom and anticipates a substantial crypto market recovery beginning in Q2.
His projections show Robinhood’s cryptocurrency revenues climbing 23% year-over-year to reach $1.1 billion during 2026. This segment would comprise approximately 15% of overall revenue expansion. An anticipated crypto price rally in the latter half should enhance retail participation and improve transaction margins.
The Bitstamp acquisition, completed last June for $200 million, receives particular emphasis. Chhugani characterizes it as a “key differentiator,” highlighting its rapid institutional trading growth that now represents roughly 60% of aggregate crypto trading volumes.
Bernstein’s crypto revenue projection for 2026 exceeds Wall Street consensus by 31%. Looking toward 2027, their estimates surpass consensus by 18% on revenue and 25% on earnings per share.
Prediction Markets Emerge as Dominant Growth Channel
Chhugani identifies prediction markets as the most significant incremental revenue driver for Robinhood throughout 2026.
This segment’s revenue is projected to skyrocket from approximately $150 million in 2025 to roughly $586 million in 2026 — representing 286% year-over-year expansion. It would constitute about 17% of transaction-driven revenues while contributing approximately 30% of total revenue growth.
The analyst highlights an event-filled calendar ahead: the United States will host the Football World Cup during summer 2026, while midterm elections later that year should generate significant political wagering activity.
From a market share perspective, Robinhood currently captures just 4% of the total brokerage revenue opportunity. Its retail trading revenue share expanded from 11% in 2024 to 14% in 2025, driven by diversification into cryptocurrency and prediction markets.
Bernstein’s 2026 revenue forecast exceeds consensus by 9%, with earnings per share 16% above estimates. For 2027, revenue projections are 18% higher than consensus with EPS forecasts 25% ahead.
However, not all analysts share this enthusiasm. Truist reduced its price objective to $100 from $120, citing declining transaction revenues. Mizuho lowered its target to $105 from $110, highlighting weaker net interest income. Citizens dropped its target to $155 from $180 after cutting Q1 2026 EBITDA projections to $573.1 million, beneath consensus expectations.
Among 17 tracked analysts, 14 assign Buy ratings and 3 recommend Hold, establishing a Strong Buy consensus. The mean price target stands at $104.56, implying roughly 20% upside from present levels.
First-quarter earnings are scheduled for April 28.
