TLDR
- Michael Burry published a detailed valuation analysis estimating Palantir’s worth at $46 per share with a broad range of $21 to $146.
- The investor maintains a bearish position through put options while avoiding direct short selling of PLTR shares.
- Burry’s critique centers on valuation detachment from fundamentals, claiming the stock trades on executive reputation over financial reality.
- Chart patterns indicate PLTR risks falling below $100 with technical analysts identifying $70 as a likely support destination.
- The analysis questions whether Palantir’s AI narrative can sustain current price levels given underlying business metrics.
Michael Burry just threw a wrench into Palantir Technologies’ valuation story. The investor famous for forecasting the 2008 mortgage crisis released an in-depth analysis questioning the AI company’s price tag.
Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR
His number? Approximately $46 per share represents fair value. That figure stands far below where PLTR currently trades after its explosive run fueled by artificial intelligence enthusiasm.
Burry laid out a valuation framework spanning $21 to $146. He clarified these aren’t conventional Wall Street targets. Instead, they map potential outcomes based on how Palantir’s actual operations stack up against market assumptions.
The context matters. Palantir has ridden the AI wave to become one of the market’s hottest technology plays. Data analytics platforms and defense contracts have captured investor imagination. Burry argues this excitement has pushed the stock into territory fundamentals can’t defend.
His examination extends beyond financial statements. Burry analyzed Palantir’s corporate structure and leadership dynamics. He suggests the stock prices in CEO Alex Karp’s brand rather than cold business realities. When that premium gets tested, he expects it to crack.
Burry’s Strategic Bearish Position
The investor revealed he’s positioned through put options instead of outright short sales. This strategy caps his risk while maintaining downside exposure if shares decline. It’s a calculated wager on lower prices.
“I believe Palantir’s recent winning streak will not endure,” Burry wrote in “Palantir’s New Clothes: Foundry, AIP & the Failure of Reason” on his substack. The report is sparking recalibration across investment firms.
He made clear his analysis targets the business model, not management personally. This matters because Palantir supporters often frame criticism as misunderstanding the company’s culture rather than addressing valuation math.
Charts Point Toward $70 Support Zone
Technical analysis backs Burry’s bearish stance. Analyst Alex Dudov maps PLTR in a correction pattern with substantial downside exposure. The $100 mark serves as a critical inflection point.
Dudov’s research identifies $70 as a probable destination. That’s where institutional capital might enter with conviction. Before reaching that level, the stock faces continued selling pressure.
Chart structure reveals Palantir completed an impulse rally before transitioning into multi-phase correction. This follows typical post-advance behavior. Price discovery must occur to locate where real demand materializes.
Breaking $100 could accelerate the journey to $70. The stock is searching for equilibrium that attracts sustained buying rather than speculative momentum.
Burry’s $46 estimate incorporates revenue trajectories, margin profiles, competitive positioning, and market scale. His wide range acknowledges uncertainty in future performance. Even optimistic cases struggle to support current valuations in his view.
This creates challenges for investors anchored to the AI growth thesis. They must weigh holding through turbulence against securing profits and seeking better entry prices.
Institutional flow patterns suggest major players are waiting for cheaper levels. This absence of bid support at current prices maintains downward momentum as the stock hunts for a floor.
Monitor the $100 threshold carefully. Violation could trigger faster movement toward $70 where buying interest may finally emerge with force.
Burry uses put options to express his bearish view while technical models project PLTR declining toward $70 before finding lasting support.
