Key Takeaways
- Freedom Capital Markets shifted Nebius (NBIS) stock rating from Buy to Hold following approximately 70% appreciation over two months.
- Price target increased to $154 from $108 by analyst Paul Meeks, who cited valuation concerns despite strong fundamentals.
- Shares have skyrocketed 574% year-over-year, trading close to the 52-week peak of $149.82.
- Revenue and adjusted EBITDA projections for 2026-2027 were upgraded, surpassing Street consensus.
- Analyst suggests CoreWeave (CRWV) and Applied Digital (APLD) offer superior near-term risk-reward profiles.
Nebius Group (NBIS) stock has experienced an extraordinary rally. Following an almost parabolic ascent of approximately 70% since the beginning of February, Paul Meeks from Freedom Capital Markets has adopted a more cautious stance — adjusting his recommendation accordingly.
Meeks downgraded NBIS shares from Buy to Hold on Thursday while simultaneously increasing his price objective to $154 from the previous $108. The seemingly conflicting moves — raising the target while lowering the rating — actually follows a clear rationale: the shares have advanced more rapidly than anticipated.
Shares began February trading around $85.19. By April 10, the stock had reached $144.97 at the close. That represents approximately $60 in gains over barely two months. Currently, NBIS trades in proximity to its 52-week peak of $149.82.
The longer-term perspective reveals an even more dramatic trajectory. Throughout the trailing twelve months, NBIS has climbed 574%.
Meeks maintains confidence in the underlying business fundamentals. His firm actually increased revenue and adjusted EBITDA projections for both 2026 and 2027, with both forecasts now exceeding consensus Street estimates.
The projected growth figures are substantial. Between 2026 and 2027, Freedom Capital anticipates revenue expansion exceeding 200% while adjusted EBITDA is expected to climb approximately 336%.
Growth Drivers Behind Optimistic Projections
A significant catalyst supporting the 2027 acceleration involves a capacity expansion announcement made March 31. Nebius unveiled plans to deploy 310 MW of AI infrastructure at its Lappeenranta, Finland location. This additional capacity should become operational during the coming year.
When fully operational, the installation is projected to rank among Europe’s most substantial AI factories. This development represents a critical component of the growth narrative extending into 2027.
The revised $154 price objective reflects 6 times Freedom Capital’s 2027 EV/adjusted EBITDA projection, contrasted with 25 times the 2026 figure — highlighting the dramatic growth trajectory anticipated between these periods.
Meanwhile, BofA Securities initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $150 target. BWS Financial maintains a $200 objective, following a $12 billion contract Nebius landed with Meta Platforms — with potential for an additional $15 billion in future business.
Wall Street Consensus View
According to TipRanks data, NBIS carries a Strong Buy consensus rating, supported by nine Buy recommendations and one Hold. The consensus price objective stands at $165.20, suggesting approximately 14% potential upside from present trading levels.
During March, Nebius completed a $4 billion convertible senior notes offering — expanded from the initial $3.75 billion. The transaction comprised $2.25 billion in 2031 maturity notes plus $1.75 billion due 2033, with settlement occurring March 20.
Meeks indicated that CoreWeave (CRWV) and Applied Digital (APLD) currently present more attractive near-term risk-reward opportunities relative to NBIS at prevailing valuations.
This downgrade centers on valuation considerations rather than fundamental growth concerns. Freedom Capital continues viewing NBIS as a compelling AI infrastructure investment — simply one where shares may require additional time to justify current pricing levels.
