TLDR
- WTI crude surged past $100 per barrel; Brent jumped 4% to nearly $99
- Only four vessels were permitted passage through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday
- Iran has instituted a fee-based system for ships seeking transit rights
- Tehran officials claim Washington breached ceasefire terms; Israeli military actions in Lebanon remain contentious
- UBS and Goldman Sachs project Brent at $80 for Q4, though acknowledge potential for significant price increases
Energy markets experienced dramatic gains on Thursday following deteriorating conditions in the US-Iran ceasefire and continued restrictions on maritime traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz.
West Texas Intermediate surged 6.6% beyond the $100 per barrel threshold. Brent crude futures gained 4% to reach approximately $98.57 per barrel. Both benchmarks had experienced significant declines on Wednesday following the Tuesday ceasefire declaration.
The dramatic market reversal occurred as evidence mounted that the ceasefire agreement was deteriorating faster than anticipated.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, declared on X that the framework agreement between Washington and Tehran “has been openly and clearly violated.” He cited ongoing Israeli military operations in Lebanon and American drone incursions into Iranian territory as evidence that further diplomatic discussions had become “unreasonable.”
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 8, 2026
Tehran maintains strong support for Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, demanding that any ceasefire arrangement must encompass Lebanese territory. However, Washington maintains its agreement with Iran does not extend to Lebanon.
Israeli forces conducted operations against over 100 Lebanese targets on Wednesday alone, representing one of the most intensive 24-hour periods of military activity. Israeli defense forces have maintained operations despite growing international pressure for de-escalation.
Hormuz Shipping Restrictions Fuel Market Rally
Approximately 20% of global oil supply transits through the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway has remained substantially closed since the late Tuesday ceasefire announcement.
S&P Global Market Intelligence reported just four vessels successfully traversed the strait on Wednesday. This represents a fraction of typical daily traffic volumes. Reuters confirmed only one oil tanker completed the passage within the most recent 24-hour period.
Tehran has communicated to mediators its intention to limit daily crossings to approximately twelve vessels while implementing toll charges. Various sources suggest fees could reach $1 per barrel. Capital Economics characterized this development as transforming the strait from an unrestricted international waterway into a controlled, fee-based passage.
Dr. Sultan Al-Jaber, leading Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, stated on LinkedIn: “The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled.”
MarineTraffic, a vessel-tracking service, reports more than 400 ships currently waiting in the area.
Washington Issues Warning Over Potential Military Response
Vice President JD Vance stated Wednesday evening that should the strait fail to reopen, the United States is “not going to abide by our terms if the Iranians are not abiding by their terms.”
President Trump posted on Truth Social Thursday morning that American military forces would maintain their Middle East presence “until such time as the real agreement is fully complied with.” He issued a stark warning that should Iran fail to fulfill its obligations, “the ‘shootin’ starts.”
Trump verified in an additional post that both nations have reached agreement that the strait would remain open and secure for navigation.
Goldman Sachs analysts indicated they anticipate energy transportation to begin normalizing this weekend, with a gradual month-long restoration to pre-conflict export volumes. They maintained their Q4 Brent projection at $80 per barrel while highlighting upside risk factors. Extended closure of the strait for an additional month could push Q4 average prices to $100. Should Gulf producers encounter difficulties restoring full output capacity, prices might reach $115.
UBS similarly projected $80 Brent for Q4, while emphasizing unresolved questions, particularly whether Gulf nations including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would risk sending tankers through a strait now under Iranian control. These nations have collectively suspended 4 million barrels daily of production.
American and Iranian diplomatic representatives are scheduled to convene in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Saturday.
