Key Highlights
- Clinical trials for Amgen’s MariTide GLP-1 therapy demonstrated approximately 20% weight reduction, rivaling Eli Lilly’s Zepbound performance
- The drug may transition to a quarterly injection schedule, surpassing its existing monthly administration frequency
- Truist Securities increased AMGN price target from $319 to $325 while keeping a Hold stance
- First-quarter 2026 revenue projection from Truist reaches $9.18 billion, significantly exceeding Wall Street’s $8.58 billion estimate
- Market observers identify opportunities for AMGN to approach its $388 peak, representing potential 11% upside
Shares of Amgen have appreciated 25% since April 2025, modestly underperforming the S&P 500’s 29% advance during the identical timeframe. The biotechnology giant currently commands a market capitalization of $186.4 billion and trades at approximately 15 times forward earnings, positioning near the top of its five-year valuation band.
The pharmaceutical company’s experimental GLP-1 therapy MariTide continues capturing heightened interest across Wall Street. Clinical participants experienced weight reductions approaching 20%, positioning the treatment competitively against Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which produces weight loss outcomes in the low-to-mid 20% range. MariTide’s performance also exceeds that of Lilly’s oral formulation Foundayo, which generated approximately 12% weight reduction in clinical studies.
During January’s JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, Amgen executives revealed MariTide’s potential transformation into a quarterly injection therapy. This advancement would represent significant progress from its present monthly administration schedule and establish a considerable convenience advantage over Zepbound’s weekly injection requirement.
Capturing dominant market share isn’t necessary for Amgen to realize substantial benefits. JPMorgan research teams project the global GLP-1 therapy market could expand to $200 billion by decade’s end. Should Amgen secure merely $5 billion in MariTide sales, this would elevate overall company revenues by approximately 13%, calculated against analyst projections of $37.8 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Phase 3 clinical data for MariTide is anticipated in early 2027. Historical patterns show analysts progressively increasing revenue forecasts as pivotal trial readouts approach, transitioning from cautious risk-adjusted models toward more optimistic scenarios.
Truist Increases Target, Anticipates Q1 Outperformance
Truist Securities elevated its AMGN valuation target to $325 from $319 this week while maintaining its Hold recommendation. The investment firm projects first-quarter 2026 revenues reaching $9.18 billion compared to the Street consensus of $8.58 billion, alongside non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.24 versus the $4.77 consensus figure.
Truist’s quarterly forecasts exceed consensus across multiple flagship products including Repatha ($874 million), Prolia ($878 million), Evenity ($598 million), and Tezspire ($487 million). The firm additionally upgraded its long-range Krystexxa projections following enhanced patent exclusivity extending through 2040.
Truist boosted MariTide’s probability of success metrics, pointing to an increasingly robust commercial profile within obesity therapeutics.
Solid Foundational Business Strengthens Investment Thesis
Beyond the GLP-1 opportunity, Amgen’s established portfolio demonstrates resilience. Fourth-quarter revenues surpassed projections, while earnings exceeded forecasts by nearly 12%. Company leadership has delivered above-consensus earnings in 17 of the past 20 reporting periods. Analysts anticipate total revenue expansion slightly below 3% throughout 2026, supported by multiple recently launched therapies gaining market traction.
Amgen recently completed a $4 billion debt refinancing at reduced interest rates. This strategic move caps future financing expenses, enabling potential MariTide revenues to translate more efficiently into bottom-line growth.
Cantor Fitzgerald maintains a Neutral outlook with a $350 valuation target. William Blair reaffirmed its Outperform rating following encouraging Phase 3 outcomes for TEPEZZA, Amgen’s thyroid eye disease treatment, which achieved a 77% proptosis response rate compared to 19.6% with placebo.
AMGN’s all-time peak of $388, established earlier this year, sits approximately 11% above present trading levels.
