TLDR
- Palantir (PLTR) stock trades down 27% in 2026 despite posting Q4 revenue of $1.407 billion, representing 70% year-over-year growth and beating consensus by $65.4 million
- Daniel Ives at Wedbush reaffirmed his $230 price target after earnings, suggesting 77% upside potential as he dismisses AI disruption fears as “doomsday scenario”
- The company reported full-year 2025 revenue of $4.475 billion with US commercial revenue up 109% and adjusted free cash flow reaching $2.270 billion
- Palantir’s AI Platform continues driving growth with 137% US commercial revenue expansion in Q4 and 180 deals over $1 million closed during the quarter
- Consensus rating stands at Moderate Buy with 11 Buy ratings, 5 Hold ratings, and average price target of $192.88 implying 48% upside from $130 level
Palantir stock has tumbled 27% year-to-date even as the data analytics company delivered another quarter of strong results. Shares currently trade around $130 despite beating analyst expectations.
Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR
The company reported fourth quarter revenue of $1.407 billion, up 70% from the same period last year. This figure exceeded Wall Street estimates by $65.4 million.
Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.25, beating the consensus forecast by $0.02. The company’s US commercial business showed exceptional strength with revenue growing 137% in the quarter.
Palantir closed 180 deals valued at more than $1 million during the final three months of 2025. This demonstrates continued strong demand for the company’s data analytics solutions.
For full-year 2025, revenue totaled $4.475 billion, marking 56% growth from 2024. US revenue climbed 75% to reach $3.32 billion for the year.
The company’s US commercial segment surged 109% annually while government revenue increased 55%. Palantir generated $2.270 billion in adjusted free cash flow throughout 2025.
Software Sector Faces Pressure
The stock decline reflects broader concerns weighing on software companies. Investors worry that AI agents could disrupt traditional seat-based subscription models that have driven reliable revenue growth.
New AI tools threaten to automate work currently handled by legacy software systems. This has created uncertainty about the sustainability of established software business models.
Daniel Ives at Wedbush Securities takes a different view. The highly-rated analyst believes the market is overreacting to these concerns.
“We believe the market is baking in a doomsday scenario for software companies in the near-term, which we believe is extremely overblown,” Ives stated in his recent note.
Why This Analyst Stays Bullish
Ives maintains an Outperform rating on Palantir with a $230 price target. This implies 77% upside potential from current price levels.
The analyst called the recent earnings report “another strong drop the mic quarter of beats across the board.” He reiterated his bullish stance immediately following the results.
Ives argues that Palantir’s AI Platform sets it apart from traditional software companies facing disruption. The platform has generated unprecedented demand across both commercial and government customers.
Recent partnerships highlight the platform’s broad appeal. Since mid-December, Palantir has announced collaborations with France’s DGSI intelligence agency, insurance giant AIG, and the UK’s Sovereign AI infrastructure provider.
“As enterprises move from AI experimentation to production, Palantir’s value proposition becomes more relevant, not less,” Ives explained.
Wall Street Outlook
Ives believes Palantir has “a golden path to becoming a trillion-dollar market cap company.” The company currently maintains a market capitalization around $310 billion.
His $230 price target stands above the Wall Street consensus of $192.88. The average analyst target suggests 48% upside from current levels.
Among 18 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy while 5 recommend Hold and 2 say Sell. This translates to a Moderate Buy consensus rating.
The stock has gained 1,700% over the past three years despite the recent pullback. Ives expects continued growth as Palantir expands its leadership position in AI-powered data analytics.
