Key Highlights
- Samsung forecasted first-quarter 2026 operating profit reaching 57.2 trillion won ($37.8 billion), representing an eightfold increase compared to the previous year.
- Quarterly revenue is anticipated to climb nearly 70% to 133 trillion won during the January-March timeframe.
- Explosive growth in AI chip demand has triggered memory chip shortages, driving prices substantially upward.
- Samsung has made significant progress in catching up to competitor SK Hynix in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) sector, delivering HBM4 units to Nvidia this February.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East present potential risks through supply chain disruptions and increased energy expenses.
Samsung’s preliminary first-quarter 2026 operating profit projection of 57.2 trillion won represents an extraordinary eightfold surge versus the corresponding period last year, significantly surpassing analyst consensus estimates of approximately 40-42 trillion won from LSEG SmartEstimate.
Should these figures be validated, this performance would approach triple the company’s prior quarterly profit record of 20 trillion won achieved in the fourth quarter of last year. Remarkably, it would also surpass Samsung’s entire operating profit total for 2025.
Quarterly revenue projections stand at 133 trillion won, marking a 68% year-over-year increase. Complete financial details will be disclosed when the company releases comprehensive earnings results on April 30.
The exceptional performance stems primarily from Samsung’s memory chip operations. Unprecedented AI infrastructure requirements have created widespread shortages throughout the memory market, triggering sharp price increases. Industry research firm TrendForce anticipates contract DRAM prices will escalate by over 50% during the current quarter.
According to a Meritz Securities analyst’s estimates, Samsung’s memory chip segment generated approximately 54 trillion won in operating profit for the quarter. Meanwhile, its logic chip operations recorded losses near 1.6 trillion won. The mobile division contributed roughly 4 trillion won in profit, showing a modest year-over-year decline.
Closing the High-Bandwidth Memory Technology Gap
Twelve months ago, Samsung’s chief executive publicly acknowledged the company’s disappointing earnings results and its technological lag behind competitor SK Hynix in providing high-bandwidth memory chips to Nvidia. Since then, meaningful progress has been achieved.
Samsung commenced deliveries of its newest HBM4 chip technology to Nvidia during February. Nevertheless, according to Heungkuk Securities analysis, HBM chips represented under 10% of Samsung’s DRAM chip revenue in the first quarter. The primary driver behind the dramatic profit expansion came from conventional DRAM demand spurred by AI inference applications, which have intensified commodity memory shortages.
Heungkuk Securities analysts forecast Samsung’s total operating profit will achieve another record high of 75 trillion won in the second quarter, propelled by projected DRAM price increases exceeding 30%.
Additionally, the company has benefited from a depreciated South Korean won, currently trading near its weakest level against the U.S. dollar in 17 years. This currency dynamic has enhanced the value of repatriated international earnings.
Geopolitical Tensions Create Industry Uncertainty
The escalating U.S.-Israel military engagement with Iran has introduced new risk factors for the semiconductor industry. Potential disruptions to critical semiconductor manufacturing materials—particularly helium—could impact production capabilities at major manufacturers including Samsung and SK Hynix.
Elevated energy costs associated with the regional conflict have prompted concerns about possible deceleration in AI data center demand during the latter half of the year.
Spot DRAM pricing softened marginally last week, with TrendForce observing that end-customer demand has struggled to accommodate current elevated price levels. Google’s March introduction of TurboQuant, a memory-optimization technology, applied additional downward pressure, contributing to a market selloff that has reduced Samsung’s stock valuation by approximately 9% since hostilities commenced on February 28.
Despite this recent correction, Samsung’s shares remain more than 60% higher in 2026, following a 125% appreciation throughout 2025.
Competitor SK Hynix shares advanced 3.4% higher during Tuesday’s trading session.
