TLDR
- Strategy (MSTR) reports Q4 2025 results Thursday, February 5 with Wall Street expecting $119.12 million revenue and $0.08 per share loss
- Company bought 855 Bitcoin for $75.3 million at $87,974 average price, bringing total holdings to 713,502 BTC with $76,052 cost basis
- Bitcoin crashed below $73,000 in worst decline since November 2024, pushing Strategy’s holdings below water for first time
- MSTR shares down 60% over past year and trading at $129.03 as crypto market liquidations exceed $660 million
- Eleven analysts give Strong Buy consensus rating with $437.11 average price target implying 228% upside from current levels
Strategy reports fourth quarter 2025 earnings on Thursday, February 5 after the market closes. The Bitcoin-focused company faces its most challenging moment yet.
Wall Street analysts forecast revenue of $119.12 million, representing a 1.3% year-over-year increase. The consensus calls for a loss of $0.08 per share versus a $3.03 loss in last year’s quarter.
Recent earnings history doesn’t inspire confidence. The company missed analyst estimates in six of its past nine quarterly reports.
Shares trade at $129.03, down 7% in the past day. The stock has tumbled 60% over the past year. Year-to-date losses reach 12%.
Fresh Bitcoin Buy Before Market Crash
Strategy disclosed a new Bitcoin purchase in a February 2 SEC filing. The company acquired 855 Bitcoin for approximately $75.3 million.
The average purchase price came to $87,974 per coin. This transaction increased Strategy’s total Bitcoin position to 713,502 BTC.
The timing proved unfortunate. Bitcoin crashed below $73,000 on February 3, marking its worst performance since early November 2024.
The crypto market experienced mass liquidations. Over $660 million in positions got wiped out within 24 hours. Bitcoin led the carnage with $112.7 million in liquidations.
More than 161,000 traders saw their positions liquidated. The largest single liquidation was a $6 million ETH/USDT order on Binance.
Strategy’s average cost across all Bitcoin holdings sits at $76,052 per coin. Bitcoin currently trades around $74,674, putting the entire position in the red.
This marks the first time Strategy’s Bitcoin stack has fallen below its average purchase price. However, the company faces no immediate pressure since none of its Bitcoin serves as collateral.
Analyst Coverage Remains Bullish
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Ramsey El-Assal recently initiated coverage with an Overweight rating. He set a $213 price target on the shares.
El-Assal praised Strategy’s singular focus on Bitcoin accumulation. He believes the company’s capital-raising approach for gaining Bitcoin exposure is effective.
Bitcoin price swings don’t pose major balance sheet risks, according to the analyst. He expects growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin to support the long-term strategy.
El-Assal did warn about several risks. Bitcoin volatility, regulatory changes, and potential shareholder dilution remain concerns.
Strategy uses market Net Asset Value (mNAV) to gauge its premium over Bitcoin holdings. When Bitcoin rallied to records, mNAV stayed well above 1.
This premium attracted investors who found buying MSTR shares more appealing than purchasing Bitcoin directly. As Bitcoin fell from October onward, mNAV compressed toward 1.
The declining premium sparked concerns at MSCI. The index provider considered removing companies with over 50% crypto exposure from its benchmarks. MSCI delayed the decision on January 6, saying more research is needed.
Wall Street Sees Major Upside
Eleven analysts cover Strategy stock. Nine rate it a Buy and two rate it a Hold. This creates a Strong Buy consensus across Wall Street.
The average analyst price target stands at $437.11. This represents potential upside of 228% from current trading levels.
Options traders are pricing in an 8.32% move following the earnings announcement. The elevated implied volatility reflects uncertainty around Bitcoin’s direction and Strategy’s performance.
Strategy purchased 855 Bitcoin on February 2 for $75.3 million at an average price of $87,974 per coin.
