Key Highlights
- Rocket Lab (RKLB) stock posted 38% revenue expansion to $601.8 million in 2025, supported by a $1.85 billion contract backlog
- The company secured an $816 million Space Development Agency deal, strengthening its government portfolio
- AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) stock generated $70.9 million in 2025 revenue as it continues early-stage satellite deployment
- AST maintains over $3.9 billion in pro forma liquidity for ongoing constellation expansion
- Analyst consensus favors Rocket Lab with a Moderate Buy rating, while AST receives a Reduce rating
Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile represent two of the most closely watched equities in the space sector today. Yet these companies operate under fundamentally different business models and carry distinctly different investment risk profiles. One has constructed a diversified, revenue-generating operation. The other is pursuing an ambitious vision that could fundamentally transform global mobile communications.
Rocket Lab delivered impressive financial performance throughout 2025. The company achieved 38% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $601.8 million. Its fourth-quarter performance was particularly strong, with revenue hitting an all-time high of $179.7 million. Perhaps most importantly, the company closed the year with a contract backlog totaling $1.85 billion—a 73% increase from the previous year. This substantial backlog provides greater revenue visibility than most competitors in the space industry can demonstrate.
The company’s revenue streams have expanded considerably beyond traditional launch services. In 2025, product revenue totaled $371.6 million, complemented by $230.2 million in service revenue. Rocket Lab now manufactures complete spacecraft, specialized components, and integrated systems primarily for defense and national security applications.
Government Contracts Provide Rocket Lab with Revenue Predictability
The company’s $816 million Space Development Agency contract award represents a significant milestone. This substantial deal demonstrates that Rocket Lab has earned the confidence of major government customers for complex, multi-year programs. The company’s upcoming Neutron medium-lift vehicle is positioned as the next catalyst for accelerated growth.
Despite these achievements, profitability remains elusive. Rocket Lab recorded a net loss of $198.2 million during 2025. Company leadership also projected continued adjusted EBITDA losses for the first quarter of 2026. The investment thesis still relies on anticipated future scale rather than current bottom-line performance.
AST SpaceMobile operates under an entirely different paradigm. The company is developing a satellite-based cellular broadband network designed to connect directly with unmodified smartphones—no specialized equipment required. If successfully deployed at scale, this technology could serve populations and regions completely unreachable by conventional satellite communications.
AST remains in the early phases of executing this vision. The company reported full-year 2025 revenue of $70.9 million. Fourth-quarter revenue reached $54.3 million, generated primarily through gateway system deliveries, partnerships with mobile network operators, and achievement of government contract milestones.
Strong Liquidity Provides AST SpaceMobile Runway for Satellite Deployment
The company disclosed cash and cash equivalents of $2.8 billion as of year-end 2025. Following additional capital raises completed in early 2026, pro forma liquidity exceeded $3.9 billion. This substantial capital position allows AST to continue satellite launches and network buildout without facing near-term funding constraints.
AST has also secured more than $1.2 billion in committed revenue contracts from commercial partners. For a company that only recently began generating meaningful revenue, this represents a significant validation. However, the company continues to operate at substantial losses, and its ultimate success depends critically on deployment pace and network reliability.
Analyst sentiment clearly reflects these divergent business profiles. Rocket Lab holds a Moderate Buy consensus rating, comprising 2 Strong Buys, 7 Buys, 7 Holds, and 1 Sell. AST SpaceMobile carries a Reduce consensus, with 2 Buys, 6 Holds, and 3 Sells.
Investment Considerations
The analyst community appears more confident in Rocket Lab’s established business framework. AST’s potential upside is acknowledged as substantial but considerably harder to model with confidence at this developmental stage. Rocket Lab offers a more mature operation with diversified revenue streams, proven execution, and broader analyst endorsement. AST SpaceMobile represents a higher-risk proposition with potentially transformative returns if its satellite broadband architecture achieves commercial success.
Rocket Lab demonstrates the more solid operational foundation at present. AST SpaceMobile pursues the more ambitious technological vision. The appropriate choice between these two space stocks depends entirely on an investor’s risk tolerance and investment timeframe.
