Key Takeaways
- New research from Mercado Bitcoin demonstrates that Bitcoin delivers superior returns compared to gold and the S&P 500 within 60 days following significant global disruptions
- Following the Trump administration’s tariff declaration in 2025, Bitcoin surged 24% compared to gold’s 8% gain and the S&P 500’s modest 4% increase
- Amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, Bitcoin has climbed 2.2% while gold declined 11% and the S&P 500 dropped 4.4%
- March saw US spot Bitcoin ETFs attract $1.32 billion in net inflows, contrasting sharply with gold ETFs’ $2.92 billion in net outflows
- Industry expert James Seyffart predicts Bitcoin ETFs will ultimately surpass gold ETFs in total assets
Fresh analysis from Brazilian cryptocurrency platform Mercado Bitcoin reveals that Bitcoin consistently delivers superior performance compared to both gold and the S&P 500 during the two-month period following significant worldwide disruptions.
Rony Szuster, who serves as research director at Mercado Bitcoin, spearheaded the investigation. The analysis examined 60-day performance periods after various economic turbulence and geopolitical upheavals, encompassing events like the coronavirus pandemic and trade war intensifications.
Following the tariff measures implemented by the Trump White House in April 2025, Bitcoin surged an impressive 24% during the subsequent 60-day timeframe. Meanwhile, gold posted an 8% advance and the S&P 500 managed only a 4% increase during this identical period.
This trend echoed earlier patterns observed when the COVID-19 crisis began in March 2020. Bitcoin jumped 21%, significantly outperforming both gold and the S&P 500.
Szuster cautioned against premature assessments of Bitcoin’s crisis response. “It’s like watching the first few minutes of a movie and thinking you already know how it ends,” he remarked.
He clarified that market participants frequently liquidate holdings rapidly during turbulent periods to secure liquidity, temporarily pressuring even traditionally defensive investments.
Bitcoin Demonstrates Resilience Amid Middle East Tensions
This dynamic seems to be repeating during the ongoing U.S.-Iran confrontation. Bitcoin has appreciated approximately 2.2%, advancing from around $65,800 to $67,300.
Gold, long regarded as the quintessential safe-haven investment, has tumbled roughly 11% during this timeframe. The S&P 500 has declined 4.4%, marking its most significant monthly contraction since 2022.
Szuster emphasized that Bitcoin emerged as the top-performing investment vehicle throughout the previous ten years, notwithstanding its notorious volatility.
Bitcoin ETFs Capturing Market Share From Traditional Gold Funds
ETF specialist James Seyffart shared on the Coin Stories podcast his perspective that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds will eventually eclipse gold ETFs in aggregate assets under management.
“There are just more use cases of why somebody would put a Bitcoin ETF in a portfolio,” Seyffart explained. He highlighted Bitcoin’s multiple functions including digital gold, wealth preservation tool, portfolio diversification instrument, and appreciation vehicle.
“Our view is that Bitcoin ETFs will be larger than gold ETFs,” he stated.
Current capital movement statistics support this evolving investor preference. Throughout March, gold ETFs domiciled in the United States experienced net redemptions totaling $2.92 billion. Conversely, US spot Bitcoin ETFs garnered $1.32 billion in net subscriptions during the same month.
The dominant US gold ETF witnessed a $3 billion single-session withdrawal on March 4, representing the largest daily redemption in more than 24 months.
Both investments have declined over the recent 30-day window. Bitcoin has retreated approximately 8% while gold has fallen about 8.25%, indicating correlated movement despite divergent ETF activity.
In December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets researcher Chris Kuiper observed that gold and Bitcoin have traditionally alternated in their relative performance cycles.
