TLDR
- ASML’s Q4 orders totaled €13.2 billion, far exceeding the €6.85 billion analyst consensus
- 2026 revenue guidance lifted to €34-39 billion, signaling growth of at least 20% year-over-year
- EUV machine bookings reached €7.4 billion, making up more than half of quarterly orders
- Stock surged 7.5% to €1,309 as investors bet on continued AI-driven chip demand
- Company cutting 1,700 jobs while returning €12 billion to shareholders through 2028
ASML Holding crushed fourth-quarter expectations with order levels that shocked Wall Street. The semiconductor equipment giant reported bookings of €13.2 billion versus analyst forecasts of €6.85 billion.
Shares jumped 7.5% to a record €1,309 in Amsterdam trading. The stock has climbed 41% year-to-date as AI infrastructure spending accelerates globally.
The Dutch company manufactures lithography machines required for producing advanced semiconductors. Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel, and other leading chipmakers depend on these systems.
CEO Christophe Fouquet said customers are expressing stronger confidence in AI demand sustainability. This optimism is translating into expanded capacity plans and equipment purchases.
EUV Systems Drive Quarterly Performance
Extreme ultraviolet lithography machines dominated Q4 bookings. These advanced EUV systems accounted for €7.4 billion in orders, representing more than half the quarterly total.
A worldwide memory chip shortage is adding momentum to orders. Component prices have reached unprecedented levels with analysts expecting tight supply through 2027.
Samsung and SK Hynix are preparing major capacity expansions. Barclays projects SK Hynix will acquire 12 EUV machines in 2026 to address the memory crunch.
Taiwan Semiconductor announced capital expenditures exceeding $52 billion for 2026. The spending will target advanced manufacturing processes that require ASML’s most sophisticated equipment.
Meta and Microsoft are pouring hundreds of billions into data center projects. This investment wave is forcing semiconductor manufacturers to rapidly scale production capabilities.
CFO Roger Dassen noted customers have become “more positive” about medium-term market prospects. Their improved outlook is based primarily on robust AI-related demand expectations.
Company Raises Full-Year Forecast
ASML increased 2026 revenue projections to between €34 billion and €39 billion. The forecast midpoint beats analyst estimates of €35.1 billion and implies at least 20% growth over 2024.
Total 2025 net sales came in at €32.7 billion. First-quarter 2026 revenue is expected to range from €8.2 billion to €8.9 billion.
The company previously indicated 2026 sales wouldn’t fall below 2025 levels. The upgraded guidance reflects strengthening order trends and customer confidence.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently called the data center buildout “the largest infrastructure project in human history.” He estimated trillions in additional investment will be necessary over the next several years.
Restructuring and Capital Returns
ASML plans to cut 1,700 positions, equal to 4% of its global workforce. Most reductions will hit Netherlands operations with additional cuts in the United States.
Fouquet said the layoffs will make operations more “agile” despite strong business results. The company aims to streamline processes and improve organizational efficiency.
ASML announced a €12 billion share buyback program running through December 2028. The initiative provides substantial returns to investors while the company restructures.
China made up 36% of Q4 net system sales but is projected to fall to 20% of 2026 revenue. Export restrictions bar ASML from selling EUV machines or advanced deep ultraviolet systems to Chinese buyers.
Equipment shipped to China trails ASML’s cutting-edge technology by eight generations. Chinese chipmakers continue ordering older systems for manufacturing mature semiconductors.
ASML said it will stop disclosing quarterly bookings going forward, arguing the metric fails to accurately represent business momentum and customer demand patterns.
