TLDR
- ASML reports Q4 results Wednesday with Bernstein forecasting EUR 9.7 billion revenue versus EUR 9.5 billion consensus
- China imports reached unprecedented EUR 3.27 billion in Q4 as customers stockpile deep ultraviolet equipment
- Q4 bookings projected above EUR 8 billion in final disclosure as chipmakers boost 2026 capital plans
- TSMC raising spending 37% to $56 billion, Samsung up 24% to $40 billion, with equipment makers capturing 25%
- Stock doubled since April, up 25% in January as exclusive supplier of EUV systems for advanced semiconductors
ASML prepares to release fourth quarter results Wednesday with analysts anticipating a strong performance. Bernstein SocGen Group reaffirms its Outperform rating alongside a $1,642 price target. This target suggests 16.6% gains from the current $1,407.63 price level.
The stock has posted impressive returns lately. It’s up 100% since April and added 25% this month.
Bernstein sees ASML beating Wall Street projections. Import tracking data indicates revenue may hit EUR 9.7 billion. The consensus forecast sits at EUR 9.5 billion.
China emerged as a major growth driver. Import figures show EUR 3.27 billion from China in Q4. This breaks previous records for Chinese purchases.
Chinese manufacturers are rushing to secure equipment. They’re placing orders for deep ultraviolet systems to support domestic chip production expansion.
Bookings Take Center Stage
Wednesday marks the final quarterly booking disclosure from ASML. This makes the upcoming numbers particularly critical for investors tracking the business.
Bernstein anticipates robust booking figures. Logic chip producers and DRAM manufacturers both increased their 2026 investment plans during the final quarter of 2025.
Wall Street now expects at least EUR 8 billion in bookings. Bernstein believes the actual figure could surprise to the upside.
ASML operates without direct competition in key segments. The company is the sole manufacturer of EUV lithography equipment essential for cutting-edge processors. Yole Group’s John West calls the company “the only game in town” for this technology.
Capital Spending Boom Benefits Equipment Suppliers
Semiconductor manufacturers are dramatically increasing capital budgets. TSMC will lift spending 37% to reach $56 billion in 2026. Samsung Electronics plans a 24% bump to $40 billion.
SK Hynix targets 25% growth to $22 billion. Micron Technology eyes a 45% surge to $20 billion in equipment investment.
About 25% of chipmaker capital flows to manufacturing equipment providers. ASML dominates this spending due to its technology leadership. This share could expand as AI chips require increasingly complex fabrication techniques.
The customer roster includes every major semiconductor producer. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Intel Corporation depend on ASML systems. Nvidia chip demand also drives tool purchases.
Technology companies like Apple, Alphabet, and Qualcomm Incorporated fuel additional orders. These firms need state-of-the-art processors for artificial intelligence workloads.
Mizuho’s Kevin Wang sees “China business upside” potential in 2026. Competition exists in older technology categories, but analysts expect ASML to preserve its leadership. Dan Hutcheson from TechInsights notes that changing equipment suppliers would introduce unacceptable risks given the billions chipmakers invest in production lines.
The company posted 22.77% revenue growth over the past year. Analysts give ASML a Strong Buy rating overall. The average Wall Street price target of $1,488.64 indicates 5.33% appreciation potential from current prices.
