TLDR
- US equity futures advanced Tuesday following indications Trump may conclude Iran conflict without requiring Strait of Hormuz reopening
- Dow futures jumped 1%, S&P 500 futures climbed 0.9%, Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.8%
- Major indices remain headed for their weakest quarterly performance since 2022
- Crude oil prices stayed high, with WTI trading above the $100 per barrel threshold
- Market participants anticipate March consumer confidence figures and February JOLTS data
Equity futures for US markets posted solid gains Tuesday morning following reports indicating President Trump may be prepared to conclude military operations in Iran without demanding complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed approximately 459 points, representing a 1% increase. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.9% while Nasdaq 100 contracts posted gains of 0.8%.
The upward momentum followed a late Monday evening report from The Wall Street Journal indicating that Trump and his senior advisors had determined that a military operation to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz would prolong the engagement beyond the administration’s desired timeframe of four to six weeks.
In a Tuesday morning post on Truth Social, Trump appeared to suggest a potential conclusion to operations. “Iran has been, essentially, decimated,” the president wrote. “The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”
Macro strategist Henry Allen from Deutsche Bank noted the Wall Street Journal’s reporting had “raised hopes that the current phase of the conflict will wind down soon,” further commenting that “the market tone has become decidedly more positive overnight.”
Tuesday marks the conclusion of first-quarter trading. Each of the three primary indices is tracking toward their most challenging three-month period since 2022, based on Dow Jones Market Data.
All three benchmarks declined Monday, surrendering earlier session gains as market participants expressed concern regarding the continuing Middle East situation.
Market sentiment had deteriorated significantly entering Tuesday’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index surpassed 30 on Monday, a threshold indicating elevated investor apprehension.
Oil Stays High Despite Diplomatic Signals
Oil prices maintained elevated levels despite improving diplomatic indicators. West Texas Intermediate crude settled above $100 per barrel for the first occasion since 2022. During Tuesday’s early session, WTI futures rose an additional 0.4% to reach $103.28 per barrel. Brent crude remained unchanged at $107.38.
Equities have found it challenging to sustain rallies in recent sessions when crude prices remain elevated, continuing to be a source of investor concern.
Gold futures increased 0.5% to $4,581 per ounce during early morning trading. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield declined one basis point to 4.33%. The US dollar held steady against a basket of major global currencies.
Messaging from Washington has shown inconsistency. While certain administration officials have highlighted diplomatic advancement, Trump separately floated the possibility that the United States might move to take control of Iranian oil reserves.
Economic Data Due Tuesday
Market participants are awaiting additional economic releases scheduled for later Tuesday. Both the March consumer confidence index and the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey are set for publication. These indicators are anticipated to provide greater insight into the US economic landscape as the second quarter begins.
The joint US-Israeli military operation against Iran reached its fifth week as of Tuesday.
