TLDR
- Micron stock fell 2% after Samsung neared Nvidia HBM4 certification and could begin shipping in February
- Analysts argue HBM4 sales aren’t zero-sum as demand exceeds supply across all memory suppliers
- Micron’s 2026 HBM supply is sold out with low-20% market share expected through 2027
- The company projects nearly quadrupling HBM revenue to $20 billion by 2027
- Nvidia’s Rubin server design remains on schedule with shipments starting mid-year
Micron Technology stock dropped 2% Monday after reports surfaced that Samsung Electronics is close to securing Nvidia certification for its HBM4 memory chips. The South Korean manufacturer could become the first to ship the next-generation product.
Samsung reached the final qualification phase with Nvidia following initial HBM4 sample delivery in September. Mass production is scheduled to begin in February, with shipments expected soon after, though Samsung hasn’t provided exact dates.
The news pushed Samsung shares up 3% in Seoul trading before gains tapered off. SK Hynix, another major high-bandwidth memory player, saw its stock decline the same day.
This development indicates Samsung might reclaim some HBM market position. SK Hynix currently leads the space, and Samsung’s entry could shift the competitive balance among memory suppliers serving AI accelerators.
Mizuho TMT analyst Jordan Klein pushed back against the idea that Samsung’s progress hurts competitors like Micron. He stressed that more suppliers entering the market doesn’t reduce available business.
“Selling HBM4 to NVDA or AMD is NOT A ZERO SUM GAME. Demand exceeds supply,” Klein stated. He noted HBM4 pricing will be substantially higher than HBM3e, the current generation.
Klein added that all three major memory suppliers will qualify and ship HBM4 to Nvidia this year. Demand for these high-performance memory chips outpaces what any single manufacturer can produce.
Supply Constraints Protect Market Share
William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji recently initiated coverage on Micron with an Outperform rating. He pointed out that tight supply across all three vendors will likely prevent major market share shifts.
Micron’s 2026 HBM supply is completely sold out. The company expects to maintain market share in the low-20% range through both 2026 and 2027.
Naji projects Micron will nearly quadruple its HBM revenue over the next two years. The company is positioned to capture roughly $20 billion in HBM revenue by 2027.
The HBM market has become critical as artificial intelligence applications drive demand for high-performance memory solutions. These specialized chips are essential components in advanced computing systems powering AI workloads.
Production Timelines Align
Nvidia’s next-generation Rubin server design remains on schedule. Initial shipments are expected to begin around mid-year, with volumes ramping up during the third and fourth quarters.
Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra told analysts during the company’s most recent earnings call that HBM4 production ramp is planned for the second quarter of 2026.
The memory chip market continues to benefit from AI-driven demand growth. All three major suppliers face the challenge of scaling production to meet customer needs.
HBM4 represents a step up in performance and pricing from current generation chips. The technology enables faster data processing in AI accelerators and high-performance computing systems.
Micron shares closed down 0.9% at $396.16 on Monday.
