Key Highlights
- Analyst Stacy Rasgon from Bernstein noted AI chip demand “shows no signs of slowing,” driving ASML shares up 5.1%
- While Rasgon’s report didn’t explicitly cite ASML, market participants quickly linked the analysis to the chip equipment supplier
- Bank of America maintained its Buy recommendation with a €1,598 target following investor meetings in Asia
- BofA identifies ASML as a “prime beneficiary” from expanding EUV technology adoption and increasing memory capital expenditures
- BofA’s 2028 revenue projection of €52 billion could prove cautious; an investor day is anticipated later this year
ASML Holding experienced a sharp rally exceeding 5% this Monday following a pair of encouraging analyst reports that redirected market attention to the semiconductor equipment giant.
The upward momentum began with research published by Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon. Though ASML wasn’t explicitly referenced in his commentary, investors quickly drew connections.
Rasgon’s analysis centered on the wider AI semiconductor sector, maintaining that demand “currently shows no signs of slowing” even amid this year’s volatility in AI-related equities.
He highlighted Broadcom (AVGO) as particularly promising, projecting the company could potentially increase its 2025 earnings fourfold to exceed $20 per share. Nvidia (NVDA) earnings could expand from below $5 last year to $12 or higher by 2027. ASML shares were changing hands near $1,369 during market hours, representing approximately a 3.9% gain.
The Supply Chain Connection: How ASML Profits from AI Growth
The linkage is straightforward: accelerating AI chip demand translates to higher revenues for semiconductor designers including Nvidia and Broadcom. This demand cascades to manufacturing facilities like TSMC, which must scale production capabilities. Capacity expansion requires purchasing advanced equipment — precisely what ASML provides.
Rasgon additionally highlighted persistent supply bottlenecks stemming from inadequate chip manufacturing capacity. Such conditions create an ideal backdrop for sustained demand in ASML’s specialized lithography systems.
ASML’s current valuation trades at 46.5 times historical earnings. However, Wall Street forecasts 19% annual profit growth over the coming five years, and should Rasgon’s AI demand outlook materialize, such expansion could validate current pricing levels.
Bank of America Projects Strength Extending Through 2027
In a separate research report, Bank of America’s Didier Scemama shared insights gathered from investor discussions throughout Asia.
His central conclusion: the memory semiconductor cycle is “likely to remain strong through at least 1H27E.” This outlook supports robust order activity for ASML extending well into the following year.
BofA outlined three primary growth drivers. Initially, high-NA EUV technology deployment is anticipated in 2028, led by TSMC and SK Hynix. Equipment availability climbed to 80% at 2025’s close and is projected to hit 90% by late 2026. Scemama forecasts 15 high-NA system shipments in 2028.
Additionally, low-NA EUV production capacity is expected to reach maximum levels by Q4 2027, with 22 tool deliveries planned for that year. BofA anticipates ASML may announce expanded EUV manufacturing capacity during 2026.
Finally, BofA expects ASML to conduct an investor capital markets day this year and believes the company might elevate its 2030 revenue guidance to a range between €53.7 billion and €65.4 billion.
BofA currently projects €52 billion in 2028 sales and characterizes this estimate as “increasingly conservative” relative to broader analyst consensus.
Bank of America retained its Buy recommendation with an unchanged €1,598 price objective, designating ASML as its preferred investment within the semiconductor equipment sector.
