TLDR
- Apple shares dropped 5-6% in early 2026, creating what three major Wall Street firms call a buying opportunity
- Goldman Sachs expects 13% iPhone revenue growth with 26% surge in China shipments for December quarter
- Evercore ISI forecasts 17% iPhone revenue jump, well above 11% consensus, driven by premium model demand
- Citi projects 82 million iPhone units sold in holiday quarter, above Street estimates, maintains Buy rating
- iPhone Fold anticipated to ship 4.5 million units fall 2026, ramping to 25.4 million in fiscal 2027
Apple has stumbled in the opening weeks of 2026. Shares are down between 5% and 6% year-to-date as of mid-January.
Three major Wall Street banks aren’t concerned. They’re calling the decline a buying opportunity before the company reports earnings on January 29.
Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng says commodity cost inflation and App Store worries likely triggered the selloff. But he thinks those issues won’t stop a strong quarter.
Goldman forecasts earnings of $2.66 per share for fiscal Q1 2026. That matches Wall Street consensus.
The firm expects iPhone revenue to jump 13% compared to last year. Unit sales should climb 5%, with China shipments surging 26%.
Price and product mix improvements add another 8 points to revenue growth. Customers are gravitating toward more expensive models.
Evercore Predicts Even Stronger iPhone Performance
Evercore ISI added Apple to its Tactical Outperform list on Tuesday. The firm kept its $330 price target and Outperform rating intact.
Evercore sees iPhone revenue climbing 17% year over year. That’s six percentage points above what most analysts expect.
Sales tilted heavily toward premium models during the December quarter. That should push average selling prices higher than forecasted.
The firm calls Apple its top stock pick for 2026. It believes iPhone demand will stay robust throughout the year.
Citi shares the bullish iPhone outlook. Analysts there project Apple sold 82 million units in the holiday quarter.
That number beats consensus estimates. Citi kept its Buy rating but cut its price target from $330 to $315.
Rising memory costs could pressure profit margins in future quarters. But the near-term picture looks strong.
Apple stock fell 1.2% to $252.59 in Tuesday premarket trading. The broader market dropped after President Trump threatened new tariffs.
Future iPhone Models And Services Momentum
Goldman Sachs sees the iPhone momentum extending well into 2027. The iPhone Fold will be a major catalyst.
The bank models 4.5 million Fold sales in fall 2026. That figure jumps to 25.4 million units in fiscal 2027.
Apple is moving toward a biannual iPhone launch schedule. Software updates through iOS and Siri 2.0 should also fuel upgrades.
Services revenue is projected to grow 14% in the quarter. App Store spending slowed to just 7% growth.
But iCloud+, AppleCare+, and traffic acquisition costs are picking up the slack. New App Store advertising formats will provide additional lift later in fiscal 2026.
Goldman believes Apple’s partnership with Google Gemini strengthens the iPhone’s position as the leading AI device. That should ease investor concerns about competition.
Evercore’s $330 price target implies roughly 31% upside from current levels. The firm sees continued strength from the iPhone refresh cycle.
Citi’s 82 million unit forecast reflects sustained consumer demand for iPhone 17 models through the end of 2025. Premium device sales dominated the holiday shopping season.
