Key Takeaways
- Friday’s quadruple witching event will trigger the simultaneous expiration of trillions worth of equity and index derivatives
- BTC slipped under the $70,000 threshold on Thursday, facing challenges maintaining critical support zones
- Historical data reveals Bitcoin typically experiences subdued movement during quadruple witching, with weakness emerging in subsequent weeks
- Perpetual futures traders are primarily responsible for the ongoing cryptocurrency market decline, not spot market participants
- The crypto market faces an additional $13.5 billion derivatives expiration scheduled for March 27 on the Deribit exchange
Bitcoin tumbled beneath the $70,000 mark on Thursday as worldwide financial markets braced for one of the most significant quarterly derivatives events in conventional finance.
The quadruple witching phenomenon occurs four times annually — specifically on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. This event involves the concurrent expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, individual stock options, and single-stock futures contracts.
The magnitude of this quarterly event is substantial. During March 2025, approximately $4.7 trillion in equity and index derivatives reached expiration within a single trading session. That particular day witnessed the year’s highest S&P 500 trading volume, according to data from TradeStation.
Specific data for the March 2026 expiration remains unreleased at this time.
Throughout these quarterly events, institutional players must simultaneously close out, extend, or settle their positions. Market activity typically surges, and price volatility can intensify, particularly during the trading day’s closing hour.
Cole Kennelly, CEO of Volmex Finance, indicated the event might impact cryptocurrency markets. He stated “quadruple witching could trigger a spike in cross-asset volatility as large derivatives positions expire,” noting that the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility index was already climbing ahead of the event.
Bitcoin’s Historical Performance During Witching Days
Examining 2025 data, Bitcoin’s price movements during actual quadruple witching days demonstrated minimal volatility. The more significant declines materialized in the days and weeks following each event.
On March 21, 2025, Bitcoin showed modest daily losses but subsequently reached a bottom around $76,000 following market reactions to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. On June 20, the cryptocurrency declined 1.5% and touched a local bottom near $98,000 within two days.
On September 19, Bitcoin fell over 1% before experiencing a dramatic plunge from $177,000 to $108,000 during the subsequent week. On December 19, it closed approximately 3% higher at $85,000 but continued trading within a broader downward trajectory.
The trend remains evident: limited price action on the actual event day, followed by bearish pressure throughout the following days or weeks.
Understanding the Forces Behind the Recent Decline
Market data indicates the current Bitcoin downturn stems predominantly from futures market activity rather than spot market transactions. The Coinbase premium gap shifted into negative territory, signaling decreased demand from U.S. investors.
Cryptocurrency analyst IT Tech observed that while spot market selling decreased by approximately $40 million, perpetual futures market selling reached a substantially higher $506.75 million. This disparity identifies leveraged traders as the primary drivers of the decline.
Certain market participants anticipate a possible near-term rebound. Should Bitcoin successfully recapture the $70,000 level quickly, the subsequent resistance target sits at $76,000. However, a decline below $68,300 would expose support zones at $65,000 and $62,000.
Bryan Tan of Wintermute proposed that “being flat is a strong position” under current conditions and advised maintaining cash reserves until market direction becomes more defined.
Beyond cryptocurrency markets, the wider economic landscape continues applying downward pressure. Crude oil prices have climbed toward $120 per barrel, the VIX volatility index surged above 35 last week — marking its highest reading in twelve months — and gold retreated below $4,600.
On the horizon, an additional $13.5 billion cryptocurrency derivatives expiration is scheduled for March 27 on Deribit. Market positioning suggests traders are favoring volatility strategies over strong directional wagers.
