Key Takeaways
- XRP experienced a 10.5% decline across three sessions but maintains support above the bull flag breakout zone between $1.40 and $1.45
- South Korean investors are pulling XRP tokens off Upbit at unprecedented rates, mirroring historical accumulation behavior
- Large holder net flows have flipped positive for the first time since the start of 2024, indicating potential accumulation by whales
- The Fed maintained its benchmark rate between 3.5% and 3.75% on March 18, applying pressure across risk-on markets including cryptocurrencies
- Wednesday saw no new capital entering US-listed XRP spot ETFs, while total cumulative flows remain at $1.21 billion
XRP is currently exchanging hands in the $1.42–$1.45 range following a steep three-day retreat exceeding 10%. While the decline mirrors broader cryptocurrency market weakness, multiple blockchain metrics suggest conditions may be forming for a potential upward reversal.
The recent price weakness follows last week’s breakout from a classic bull flag formation. This technical pattern develops when an asset consolidates within a descending channel following a robust upward move. Following an upside breach of this channel, prices frequently retest the prior resistance zone as fresh support — precisely the scenario unfolding currently.
Critical support is positioned in the mid-$1.40 territory, which aligns with the 20-day exponential moving average. Should XRP successfully defend this zone, the bull flag’s projected upside target reaches approximately $1.70–$1.72, representing roughly 20% gains from present levels.
Korean Exchange Withdrawals Hit All-Time Highs
Blockchain analytics from CryptoQuant reveal a dramatic spike in XRP token withdrawals from South Korea’s dominant Upbit platform beginning in December 2025. Wallet holders spanning virtually all size categories have been extracting XRP from the exchange at historic velocity. Reduced exchange balances generally indicate diminished immediate selling pressure.
CryptoQuant analyst CW identified comparable withdrawal patterns between 2021 and early 2023, when heightened Korean exchange outflows aligned with an accumulation cycle. That timeframe preceded XRP’s surge from sub-$1 levels to beyond $3 — representing approximately 500% appreciation.
As of Thursday, XRP trading pairs denominated in South Korean Won ranked fourth globally by 24-hour trading volume according to CoinMarketCap data.
Large Holder Metrics Turn Bullish
XRP’s 90-day averaged whale net flow indicator has crossed into positive territory for the first time following an extended negative phase throughout 2024 and the opening months of 2025. During the negative regime, major holders maintained consistent distribution patterns. The current reversal suggests that heavy selling pressure from large wallets may be subsiding.
A comparable whale flow transition occurred between April and September 2025, during which XRP appreciated from approximately $2.20 to $3.55.
On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate within the 3.5%–3.75% corridor on March 18, pointing to persistent inflationary concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. Financial markets interpreted this stance as restrictive. The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index registered 29 at press time, reflecting heightened market anxiety.
Institutional engagement remains limited. US-based XRP spot ETFs recorded zero net capital inflows on Wednesday. Total assets under management currently stand at roughly $1.02 billion, compared with aggregate inflows of $1.21 billion.
CoinGlass liquidation tracking reveals significant liquidity concentration near the $1.35 level. A breakdown beneath current support could activate cascading liquidations within that zone.
Examining the four-hour timeframe, XRP exhibited a bearish MACD crossover around the $1.54 resistance threshold. Bulls require a recapture of $1.50 to start rebuilding upward momentum, with $1.55 representing the subsequent critical barrier before a potential advance toward $1.60.
