TLDR
- Citigroup upgraded Intel from “sell” to “hold” with a $50 price target, while TD Cowen raised its target from $38 to $50, marking a shift in Wall Street sentiment.
- Intel’s 2026 server CPU manufacturing capacity is sold out, and the Intel 18A process has reached 60% yields with Panther Lake chips launching this month.
- The foundry business could capture AI chip orders from major tech companies unable to secure TSMC capacity, with government incentives supporting domestic manufacturing.
- Desktop CPU business faces headwinds from AMD competition and ARM-based devices, while rising memory prices may dampen overall PC demand.
- Wall Street consensus remains at “Reduce” with a $39.46 average target despite recent upgrades, reflecting continued analyst disagreement on Intel’s turnaround prospects.
Intel has spent years in Wall Street’s penalty box. Manufacturing delays allowed TSMC to pull ahead. AMD chipped away at market share in PCs and servers.
The stock bottomed at $17.67 before staging a dramatic recovery to over $50 in 2025. Now analysts are finally catching up to the rally.
Citigroup’s Atif Malik dropped his “sell” rating this week, upgrading Intel to “hold” with a $50 price target. TD Cowen followed with its own target increase from $38 to $50.
KeyBanc took an even more aggressive stance, moving to “buy” with a $60 target. After years of downgrades, the narrative is shifting.
Intel trades around $47 with a $234 billion market cap. The stock is down 2.8% in recent action but remains well above its long-term averages.
Third-quarter revenue hit $13.65 billion, topping the $13.10 billion consensus. Intel posted $0.23 earnings per share and guided Q4 to $0.08 EPS. Full-year earnings are still expected to be negative at minus $0.11 per share.
Server Business Creates Supply Shortage
Intel’s server CPU division is experiencing a capacity crunch. The company has reportedly sold out 2026 manufacturing slots for server processors.
This represents a meaningful turnaround after AMD’s steady market share gains. Enterprise customers appear to be returning to Intel in force.
The new Panther Lake laptop chips launch this month using Intel’s 18A manufacturing process. KeyBanc analysts estimate yields around 60%, with improvement rates now matching industry standards.
This production milestone suggests Intel has conquered the technical hurdles that plagued previous process nodes. The 18A node is now commercially viable for external customers.
Foundry Segment Attracts New Interest
Malik’s upgrade centers on three foundry opportunities. TSMC’s advanced packaging shortage may push customers toward Intel. U.S. government funding creates incentives for domestic chip production. Companies designing custom AI processors need alternatives to constrained TSMC capacity.
Tech giants including Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft all develop proprietary AI chips. As AI inference demand grows, Intel Foundry could capture meaningful business from these customers.
Apple rumors add intrigue. Unconfirmed reports suggest the iPhone maker may tap Intel for some chip production, which would validate Intel’s manufacturing comeback.
High-profile deals with Nvidia and government agencies have already injected capital into the foundry operation. More customer wins could accelerate the business trajectory.
Desktop Challenges Persist
Intel’s desktop CPU lineup continues struggling. Arrow Lake processors suffer from weak gaming performance, and the upcoming refresh won’t solve the problem.
Desktop customers must wait until Nova Lake arrives in late 2026. AMD maintains momentum in the enthusiast market while Qualcomm pushes ARM-based alternatives.
Memory chip prices are climbing as AI data centers consume production capacity. Higher component costs could increase PC prices and reduce consumer demand, making Intel’s recovery harder.
Wall Street consensus sits at “Reduce” with a $39.46 average target. Five analysts rate it “buy,” 26 say “hold,” and seven recommend “sell.” Loop Capital joined Citi and TD Cowen at $50, but Susquehanna remains around $40.
The Intel 18A process is in production with Panther Lake shipping this month.
