Quick Summary
- Stock index futures showed modest gains Monday following three consecutive weeks of declines on Wall Street
- Crude oil surged beyond $100 per barrel amid Iran conflict blocking Strait of Hormuz, sparking inflation concerns
- Federal Reserve policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday; Jerome Powell’s remarks expected to drive market sentiment
- Nvidia’s GTC developer conference begins Monday featuring CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote presentation
- Key earnings releases this week include Micron, FedEx, Dollar Tree, and Alibaba
Equity futures traded in positive territory early Monday following a challenging period for major indexes. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advanced 141 points, while S&P 500 futures increased 33 points and Nasdaq 100 futures surged 131 points.
This uptick comes after a brutal three-week stretch for equities. The S&P 500 index declined 1.6% during the previous week. The Dow Jones shed 2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.3%.
Energy markets have been the primary catalyst behind the recent equity downturn. Military operations in Iran have now entered their third week with no clear resolution in sight.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint located south of Iran, facilitates the transport of approximately 14 million barrels of crude daily. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has vowed to prevent “a liter of oil” from passing through the strategic waterway. This narrow passage accounts for roughly one-fifth of worldwide tanker movements.
Oil momentarily breached the $100 threshold last Sunday, marking the first time since the 2022 Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Brent crude advanced 2.7% to $105.90 during Monday trading. U.S. West Texas Intermediate jumped 2.0% to $98.75.
Over the weekend, President Trump called upon seven countries to assist in securing safe passage through the strait. He also urged NATO alliance members to take action in reopening the vital shipping lane. In remarks to the Financial Times, Trump warned that inaction “will be a very bad for the future of NATO.”
Trump specifically mentioned China and hinted at potentially scrapping a scheduled April meeting with President Xi Jinping if China fails to leverage its influence to restore access to the waterway.
The International Energy Agency announced plans to deploy 411.9 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves to cushion against possible supply disruptions.
All Eyes on Federal Reserve Announcement
The Federal Open Market Committee convenes Wednesday for its scheduled policy meeting. The federal funds rate currently stands in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Market participants are nearly unanimous in expecting no change to current rates.
Powell’s post-announcement remarks may carry greater significance than the actual rate decision. Certain Fed officials favor reductions citing employment market softness. Others express concern that energy-fueled inflation pressures could intensify. This press conference is anticipated to be Powell’s penultimate public appearance before his chairmanship concludes in May.
Goldman Sachs analysts project that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for 60 days, Brent crude prices could reach an average of $93 per barrel during the fourth quarter.
Nvidia (NVDA) Stock and Corporate Earnings
Nvidia’s annual GTC 2026 developer conference launches Monday. CEO Jensen Huang is anticipated to introduce a next-generation inference-optimized chip incorporating technology from Groq, the startup Nvidia purchased for $17 billion last December.
Micron Technology delivers quarterly results Wednesday. The semiconductor memory manufacturer’s shares have soared more than fourfold in the past year. Its most recent quarter demonstrated a 60% year-over-year revenue increase.
FedEx announces results Thursday, alongside Alibaba. Dollar Tree will also report, providing insights into consumer spending patterns. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Xpeng releases earnings Friday.
The Producer Price Index for February is published Wednesday, following January data that revealed wholesale inflation exceeded analyst expectations.
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