Key Highlights
- Gold ETFs experienced asset outflows of 2.7% while Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of 1.5% following the outbreak of Iran hostilities
- GLD, the premier gold ETF, witnessed an unprecedented $3 billion single-day exodus on March 6—the largest withdrawal in 24 months
- Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $906 million in net capital during the 30-day period ending March 11, marking a reversal from the previous month’s $1.9 billion withdrawal
- JPMorgan’s research team observed declining Bitcoin volatility correlated with increased institutional participation
- Historical patterns indicate Bitcoin typically gains 54% on average during the year following US midterm elections
A dramatic reallocation of capital has emerged since late last month when the Iran conflict intensified, with investors systematically withdrawing funds from gold-focused investment vehicles while channeling capital into Bitcoin products at levels that have caught market observers off guard.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the market’s dominant spot gold ETF, has experienced withdrawals representing approximately 2.7% of total assets under management. Conversely, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), commanding the largest position among spot Bitcoin ETFs, has attracted inflows equivalent to roughly 1.5% of its asset base during the identical timeframe. These findings emerge from analysis conducted by JPMorgan’s research division, headed by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
The March 6 trading session witnessed GLD register a staggering $3 billion outflow in a single day. This exodus exceeded any comparable daily withdrawal by more than 200% across the preceding 24-month period, as documented by The Kobeissi Letter.
Bitcoin ETFs presented a contrasting narrative. The 30-day net inflow metric climbed to $906 million by March 11, a stark improvement from the $1.9 billion outflow recorded just 30 days prior. Bitcoin ETF holdings measured in native cryptocurrency units similarly strengthened, advancing to a positive 12,909 BTC following a preceding period that showed negative 34,197 BTC.
This divergence between the two asset classes effectively erased the year-to-date lead that gold ETFs maintained over Bitcoin ETFs prior to the Iran situation escalating.
Wall Street’s Positioning Undergoes Transformation
JPMorgan’s analysis identified that the window spanning last October through early 2026 witnessed a reallocation away from Bitcoin toward gold, predominantly among retail market participants. Throughout this interval, IBIT registered withdrawals while GLD captured robust inflows.
However, the recent pivot extends beyond simple ETF flow dynamics. Short positioning in IBIT expanded during recent months while short interest in GLD contracted. Analysts interpret this pattern as evidence that hedge funds and comparable institutional entities decreased Bitcoin exposure in preference of gold throughout that earlier timeframe.
The put-to-call ratio for IBIT options also climbed above GLD’s equivalent metric and maintained that elevated position since November, representing the first sustained interval where Bitcoin ETF derivatives exhibited greater appetite for downside hedging compared to gold ETF options.
Notwithstanding the preceding caution, Bitcoin ETFs continue leading gold ETFs in aggregate cumulative inflows since 2024. IBIT’s total inflows from inception approximate twice the volume captured by GLD across the matching period.
Bitcoin’s Price Swings Show Stabilization
JPMorgan’s research division also highlighted that Bitcoin’s volatility characteristics are exhibiting compression signals. They credit this development to enhanced institutional ownership and strengthening market liquidity conditions.
MN Capital founder and analyst Michaël van de Poppe identified that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is displaying a bullish divergence pattern on the relative strength index using daily timeframes. The ratio recently retreated to a support zone near the 12-13 level, an area that previously functioned as resistance during 2017 before transitioning to support throughout 2022 and 2023.
#Bitcoin vs. Gold is currently breaking upwards after a confirmation of the bullish divergence.
This should indicate that we’re about to see significantly more strength in Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/vwIpwJ82qz
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) March 11, 2026
Implied volatility derived from options pricing for GLD has escalated more dramatically than corresponding metrics for IBIT in recent months, indicating market participants anticipated more pronounced price fluctuations in gold.
Binance Research characterized the present market conditions as an “opportunity within risk” for Bitcoin, observing that BTC has tracked macro assets including oil and US equities since hostilities with Iran commenced.
Bitcoin ETF transaction volume from US spot products has expanded lately. Nevertheless, US spot ETFs currently represent merely 9% of aggregate Bitcoin spot trading volume, substantially below the 30-40% ETF penetration observed across US equity markets.
Historical data reveals the 12-month period subsequent to US midterm elections has never yielded negative returns for the S&P 500 since 1939, averaging increases of 19%. Bitcoin has produced average rallies of 54% across all three post-midterm year periods in available records.
JPMorgan’s analytical team maintained their long-term Bitcoin price projection of $266,000, derived from a volatility-adjusted valuation methodology relative to gold.
