TLDR
- Apple stock leads 2025 smartphone market with 20% global share, beating Samsung and Xiaomi
- iPhone 17 series drives growth in emerging markets as global shipments rise 2% year-over-year
- Samsung takes 19% market share while Xiaomi captures 13% in third place
- Apple reports Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings January 29 with Wall Street expecting $2.67 per share
- Chip shortages and rising costs expected to soften smartphone market in 2026
Apple stock finished 2025 as the top smartphone maker globally with a 20% market share, according to Counterpoint Research. The performance puts Apple ahead of Samsung and Xiaomi before the company reports fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on January 29.
iPhone 17 sales drove Apple’s market leadership. Strong demand in emerging and mid-sized markets helped the company capture the largest share among top smartphone brands. Global smartphone shipments rose 2% year-over-year in 2025.
Samsung held second place with 19% market share, posting modest shipment growth. Xiaomi ranked third with 13% of the global market, supported by emerging market demand.
Wall Street expects Apple to report earnings of $2.67 per share for Q1 fiscal 2026, up 11% year-over-year. Revenue forecasts point to $137.41 billion, representing a 10.5% increase from last year.
Tariff Rush Fades
Manufacturers accelerated shipments in early 2025 to avoid potential tariffs. This forward-buying created higher first-half volumes. The effect faded later in 2025, leaving second-half shipments largely unchanged.
Apple’s emerging market strategy paid off in 2025. The company expanded its presence in developing economies while maintaining strength in mature markets. The iPhone 17 launch timing captured year-end demand effectively.
Counterpoint analyst Varun Mishra credited solid demand from emerging markets for Apple’s performance. The iPhone 17 series resonated with consumers across multiple price points and regions.
2026 Outlook Weakens
Counterpoint predicts the smartphone market will soften in 2026. Chip shortages are expected to constrain production. Rising component costs will pressure manufacturers’ margins.
Chipmakers are prioritizing AI data center production over smartphone chips. This shift reduces available supply for handset makers. The supply constraint could slow growth even with stable demand.
Apple maintains a Moderate Buy rating from Wall Street analysts. The consensus includes 19 Buy ratings, 11 Hold ratings, and two Sell ratings. The average price target of $299.49 implies 15.47% upside potential.
Research director Tarun Pathak noted chipmaker priorities will shape 2026 market conditions. The competition between AI infrastructure and smartphone production will define supply availability. Component costs are rising as manufacturers compete for limited chip capacity.
