Key Takeaways
- United Airlines delivers Q2 earnings Wednesday; analysts anticipate 15.6% year-over-year revenue increase
- UBS maintains Buy rating with $153 price target, suggesting approximately 28% potential gain from current ~$120 level
- UBS projects Q2 EPS at $1.91, surpassing Street consensus of $1.86
- Delta’s Q2 results showed 18.7% revenue growth with 20% corporate segment expansion — viewed as bullish indicator for UAL
- 13 Wall Street analysts have increased UAL earnings projections prior to Wednesday’s announcement
United Airlines (UAL) prepares to unveil its second quarter financial results Wednesday afternoon, with Wall Street keeping a close eye on whether the airline can sustain momentum from earlier in 2025. Shares are currently hovering near $120, well below the Street’s average price target of $153.97.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc., UAL
On Monday, UBS confirmed its Buy recommendation on UAL while maintaining its $153 price objective. The investment bank projects second quarter earnings per share of $1.91, exceeding the Wall Street consensus of $1.86 and falling within the company’s guidance band of $1.00 to $2.00.
Analysts are modeling 15.6% year-over-year revenue expansion for the quarter. This represents a substantial improvement compared to the modest 1.7% growth recorded in the comparable 2024 period.
During the first quarter, UAL generated $14.61 billion in revenues, reflecting a 10.6% annual increase. While the airline exceeded earnings per share expectations, it fell short on EBITDA. The company also reported 63.39 billion revenue passenger miles, representing 6.5% growth.
Analyst estimates have remained relatively stable throughout the past month. Nevertheless, United has failed to meet Wall Street revenue projections on several occasions over the previous two years, leading to tempered expectations.
According to UBS, most market observers anticipate results landing near the upper bound of management guidance — though not exceeding it. Buy-side expectations for revenue per available seat mile and cost per available seat mile excluding fuel align closely with UBS projections.
The bank’s Q2 model incorporates 3% available seat miles expansion, 12.8% revenue per available seat mile, 7% cost per available seat mile excluding fuel, and jet fuel pricing at $4.25 per gallon.
Delta’s Performance Provides Industry Clues
Delta’s already-released Q2 figures provide investors with valuable context heading into United’s report. Delta announced revenue growth of 18.7%, beating expectations by 3.9%, with revenue per available seat mile reaching 12.4%.
Delta delivered 20% growth in its corporate segment and a 17% surge in premium revenue. UBS highlighted both metrics as encouraging signals for United given comparable business profiles.
UBS further suggested that United might demonstrate stronger sequential momentum in Atlantic operations compared to Delta, which recorded 7% Atlantic unit revenue growth — matching its first quarter performance.
Despite solid fundamentals, Delta’s shares declined 2.8% following its earnings release, illustrating that strong quarterly results don’t guarantee positive stock performance.
Additional Developments Worth Monitoring
Separate from earnings, United recently unveiled a revised seating layout for its Airbus A321XLR aircraft, incorporating shared table areas in Economy Plus for long-haul international flights.
The Federal Aviation Administration has also granted Air Space Intelligence an $875 million contract designed to enhance U.S. flight scheduling efficiency. This initiative targets industry-wide congestion reduction.
InvestingPro data reveals 13 analysts have boosted UAL earnings projections ahead of Wednesday’s disclosure, although the platform suggests the stock may be trading above its calculated Fair Value.
United Airlines releases Q2 earnings Wednesday afternoon.
