Key Points
- A thermal component problem has caused a minor setback in Nvidia’s Vera Rubin chip production schedule, according to KeyBanc analyst John Vinh
- Full-year shipment projections remain unchanged at 1.7M–1.8M Rubin units, with production acceleration expected in July
- KeyBanc increased NVDA price target from $310 to $330 while maintaining its Outperform rating
- Shares traded around $203–$205 on Tuesday, reflecting a roughly 3.4% decline
- Company insiders have divested nearly 1.9 million shares valued at approximately $410.6M in the last three months
Shares of Nvidia experienced a decline of up to 3.4% during Tuesday’s session, starting at $203.69, following reports of manufacturing delays affecting its upcoming Vera Rubin chip lineup. However, market analysts remain largely unconcerned about the setback.
In a research note released Monday, KeyBanc’s John Vinh identified a thermal lid component issue impacting Nvidia’s Rubin GPU production. While the technical problem has been addressed, it has resulted in a shifted timeline for volume manufacturing.
“We’re seeing a slight delay in the ramp of Rubin due to the thermal lid issues, which have been resolved, but are seeing indications that Rubin will start ramping in July,” Vinh stated.
The analyst gathered intelligence from sources within the Asian manufacturing ecosystem, a frequently utilized resource for tracking semiconductor production schedules.
Notwithstanding the production bump, Vinh maintained his annual delivery projections unchanged — between 1.7 million and 1.8 million Rubin chips, alongside 5.5 million to 6.0 million units of the existing Blackwell platform.
Additionally, he elevated his NVDA price objective to $330 from $310 while reaffirming his Outperform designation. The updated forecast is calculated at 25 times KeyBanc’s fiscal year 2028 earnings projection.
Wall Street Consensus Remains Positive
Vinh’s confidence is echoed throughout the analyst community. The Street continues showing strong conviction in the stock. Among 53 analysts monitored by MarketBeat, 48 rate it Buy, two assign Strong Buy, while only three maintain Hold positions. The average price objective stands at $303.84.
Bank of America, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Robert W. Baird have each published or reaffirmed constructive ratings in recent periods, with price targets spanning from $270 to $500.
NVDA has established a 52-week floor at $162.02 and a ceiling at $236.54. Through Monday’s session, the stock had gained 9.1% for the year, although it has underperformed relative to the wider semiconductor industry.
Notable Insider Activity
While professional analysts maintain confidence, corporate insiders have been reducing positions. Director Mark A. Stevens divested 885,000 shares on June 18th at an average price of $210.17, totaling approximately $186 million. Director Stephen C. Neal sold 15,500 shares on June 3rd at $215.73.
Collectively, company insiders have liquidated roughly 1.9 million shares representing about $410.6 million during the previous 90-day period. Corporate insiders currently control only 3.94% of outstanding shares.
That noted, institutional stakeholders maintain 65.27% ownership of NVDA, and Plimoth Trust Co. LLC expanded its stake by 3.1% during the first quarter, elevating its NVDA position to approximately $22.59 million — representing the fund’s second-largest holding.
Nvidia’s most recent quarterly results were announced on May 20th, delivering $1.87 in earnings per share, surpassing the $1.76 Street estimate. Revenue reached $81.61 billion compared to projections of $78.42 billion — representing 85.2% year-over-year growth.
The chipmaker also announced an $80 billion stock repurchase authorization and increased its quarterly dividend to $0.25 — a significant jump from the previous $0.01 payout.
Nvidia’s median analyst price forecast of $303.84 suggests approximately 49% potential appreciation from Tuesday’s trading range near $203.
