Key Highlights
- Tesla shares declined approximately 1% during premarket hours to $403.56 on Monday
- The company removed Model S and Model X assembly lines at its Fremont facility to accommodate Optimus robot production
- Second-quarter vehicle deliveries reached 480,100 units, surpassing analyst consensus of 406,000 units
- Jefferies upgraded its price target to $400 from $375 while keeping a Hold rating
- Market participants await the July 22 earnings announcement for Optimus manufacturing details
Tesla shares retreated approximately 1% to $403.56 during Monday’s premarket session, extending a challenging year that has witnessed the stock decline around 9% in 2026, though it remains approximately 30% above levels from a year ago.
The decline arrives as market watchers anticipate more tangible advancement on Tesla’s artificial intelligence initiatives, encompassing its humanoid robot Optimus and autonomous taxi deployment.
Last Friday, Tesla released footage demonstrating the complete removal of its Model S and Model X assembly operations at its Fremont, California manufacturing site. The dismantling process concluded in less than seven weeks. The freed production area will now accommodate Optimus robot assembly.
Tesla initially revealed intentions to discontinue Model S and X manufacturing in January, with CEO Elon Musk characterizing the robotics venture as a multi-trillion-dollar prospect. The decision underscores the company’s commitment to positioning Optimus as its next significant revenue stream.
Despite the extensive facility preparations, Tesla hasn’t commenced commercial Optimus sales yet. Competing humanoid robotics manufacturers, including China-based Unitree, continue releasing frequent development updates, intensifying expectations for Tesla to demonstrate meaningful advancement.
Second Quarter Vehicle Deliveries Surpass Projections
Tesla reported 480,100 vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026, significantly exceeding Bloomberg’s consensus forecast of approximately 380,700 units and JPMorgan’s projection of 420,000. This figure represents 25% growth compared to the prior year.
Model 3 and Model Y vehicles comprised 467,800 of total deliveries. The “Others” segment — encompassing Cybertruck and additional models — recorded 12,364 deliveries.
Following the delivery performance, Jefferies increased its TSLA price target to $400 from $375, maintaining its Hold rating. The investment firm raised its Q2 EBIT projection to $1.45 billion, representing a 5.1% margin, and increased future-year EBIT forecasts by roughly 6%.
Jefferies also elevated its automotive revenue projection for the quarter to $21 billion, incorporating $250 million in zero-emission vehicle credits and $500 million from leasing operations. Total group revenue is anticipated at $28.7 billion.
For calendar year 2026, Jefferies boosted its EBIT forecast by 4% to $6.2 billion. The firm maintained its free cash flow deficit projection at approximately $7.5 billion, accounting for capital investments of around $23 billion.
Key Focus: July 22 Financial Results
JPMorgan retained a Neutral rating with a $475 price objective following the delivery figures. RBC Capital advanced further, increasing its target to $500, incorporating a hypothetical SpaceX acquisition scenario.
Morgan Stanley preserved its Equalweight rating with a $415 target, highlighting Tesla’s recent autonomous taxi introduction in Miami as a noteworthy development.
Tesla’s robo-taxi platform, initially deployed in Austin during June 2025, continues operating in a restricted number of metropolitan areas and trails considerably behind Alphabet’s Waymo in operational scope.
Attention now shifts to Tesla’s Q2 financial report on July 22, where market participants anticipate updates regarding Optimus production schedules and the latest robot version.
Seven Wall Street analysts have already increased earnings projections ahead of the announcement, according to InvestingPro data.
