Key Highlights
- BTC surged past $61,000 following June nonfarm payroll data showing only 57,000 new jobs — significantly below the anticipated 115,000
- Jobless rate decreased to 4.2%, creating mixed signals regarding Federal Reserve monetary strategy
- Probability of a Fed interest rate increase this year fell to 50%, declining from 54% previously
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States attracted $221.7 million in net capital on July 2, breaking a 10-session outflow streak
- Bitcoin is positioned for a 3% gain this week following a rebound from a 21-month trough under $58,000
Bitcoin pushed back above the $61,000 threshold on Friday following disappointing U.S. employment figures that eased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate increases. This upward movement positions Bitcoin for a 3% gain over the week.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, only 57,000 positions were created in June. This figure fell considerably short of the projected 115,000. Additionally, the previous month’s employment numbers were downwardly adjusted by 43,000 positions.
The jobless rate registered at 4.2%, coming in marginally below the forecasted 4.3%. Though this appears favorable on the surface, it indicates an employment landscape still experiencing adjustments.
Bitcoin was changing hands near $61,632 during early Friday trading hours, representing an approximately 1.9% daily increase. Earlier this week, BTC had fallen beneath $58,000 — marking its weakest price point in 21 months.
Market analyst Ted Pillows offered his perspective on the price action, characterizing it as a bounce-back rally. In his X post, he stated: “$BTC is now above the $60,000 level. This is just a relief rally, which often happens after a 30% crash. Bitcoin’s key levels are $62,700 and $65,000, which must be reclaimed for another lower high before a new cycle low.” His analysis captures the cautious sentiment among market participants monitoring whether BTC can sustain these levels.
$BTC is now above the $60,000 level.
This is just a relief rally, which often happens after a 30% crash.
Bitcoin’s key levels are $62,700 and $65,000, which must be reclaimed for another lower high before a new cycle low. pic.twitter.com/AxgpX2aNXx
— Ted (@TedPillows) July 2, 2026
During the first half of 2026, Bitcoin declined over 30%, marking its poorest six-month performance in recent memory. Insufficient institutional appetite was identified as a primary contributing element.
Bitcoin ETF Capital Returns Following Extended Withdrawal Period
The market received a boost from renewed ETF interest. According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs registered net capital inflows totaling $221.7 million on July 2. This development concluded a string of 10 straight trading sessions characterized by net redemptions.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs See $222M Net Inflow After 10-Day Outflow Streak
On July 2 (ET), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $222 million, turning positive after 10 consecutive days of net outflows. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $29.08 million. pic.twitter.com/LP3UjuQPJV
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 3, 2026
These continuous outflows had exerted downward pressure on valuations throughout June. The turnaround suggests renewed appetite from institutional market participants.
Federal Reserve Rate Increase Probability Diminishes
The likelihood of a Fed rate increase has adjusted in response to the employment data. Polymarket information indicates a 50% probability of a rate hike occurring this year, declining from 54% recorded one day earlier.
CME FedWatch figures indicate an 82.4% likelihood that the Fed will maintain current rates at the upcoming July FOMC gathering, rising from roughly 72% the preceding day.
During his appearance at Thursday’s ECB Forum, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that inflationary pressures were moderating. He refrained from providing detailed guidance on future rate trajectory.
Following the June FOMC gathering, the majority of Fed policymakers had indicated at least one rate increase would occur this year. Market observers now anticipate unchanged rates in July, with any possible increase delayed until December at the soonest.
The CME FedWatch instrument displayed an 82.4% probability that rates would remain unaltered at the forthcoming policy meeting.
