Key Takeaways
- Wall Street anticipates Tesla will deliver between 397,000 and 408,600 vehicles in Q2, representing approximately 3% annual growth
- Europe showed remarkable strength with French registrations more than doubling and Swedish numbers climbing 56% during June
- American market faces challenges as Cox Automotive projects a 20% sales drop following federal EV tax credit elimination
- Deutsche Bank forecasts North American deliveries declining 21% annually but improving 7% quarter-over-quarter
- Shares reached $420.60 on June 30 with an 8% Monday surge, though down more than 8% year-to-date
Tesla (TSLA) prepares to unveil its Q2 delivery figures potentially as soon as Wednesday, with analysts scrutinizing whether European momentum can compensate for domestic market weakness.
Bloomberg’s analyst consensus projects 397,000 total Q2 deliveries. Meanwhile, Tesla’s proprietary sell-side consensus, updated on its investor relations portal June 26, indicates 406,024 units, with the median projection reaching 408,600.
These figures would represent approximately 3% improvement over the 384,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2025. Last year’s comparative numbers were suppressed by the Model Y transition and negative sentiment surrounding CEO Elon Musk’s political involvement.
Shares settled at $420.60 on June 30 following Monday’s 8%-plus rally — the stock’s strongest single-session performance in twelve months. Nevertheless, the equity remains essentially unchanged for the quarter and has declined over 8% in 2026.
Continental Strength Powers Growth
Europe stands out as the unambiguous success story in Tesla’s current delivery narrative. Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association reveals Tesla registered 28,610 units across the continent during May, climbing nearly 108% year-over-year. Cumulative registrations through May reached 118,068, surging 57%.
Focusing solely on EU markets, May registrations increased by over 152%.
Preliminary June figures continue the pattern. French registrations more than doubled, Danish numbers advanced 39%, and Swedish registrations jumped 56% based on Wednesday’s released data.
Norway proved exceptional — registrations plummeted 43% annually. British and German statistics remain pending later this week.
Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu identified Europe as “the standout driver,” forecasting nearly 40% annual expansion from the region. China should contribute roughly 3% growth, while North America faces a projected 21% year-over-year decline, despite improving 7% sequentially from Q1.
Battery-electric vehicles currently represent 20% of the EU market through May, ascending from 15.3% twelve months prior, as conventional petrol and diesel sales steadily contract.
Domestic Market Confronts Challenges
The American market presents more difficult circumstances. Federal EV tax credit expiration eliminated a crucial financial incentive that previously made electric vehicles economically attractive for numerous consumers. Cox Automotive projects Tesla’s domestic sales have contracted 20% consequently.
Musk’s political visibility remains controversial across Europe, though the impact on sales appears diminished compared to earlier periods — consumers seemingly prioritize value propositions over controversy.
Energy Division Performance Also Anticipated
Beyond automotive deliveries, Tesla’s energy storage and battery deployment segment will receive attention. Tesla’s internal consensus projects 13.8 GWh deployed during Q2, representing over 50% growth compared to Q1’s 8.8 GWh figure.
Britain and Germany, representing Europe’s dominant automotive markets, will publish June registration data later this week.
