Key Highlights
- Shares of Micron jumped more than 15% on June 24 following exceptional Q3 earnings, reaching an all-time peak of $1,255 before declining 6.7% in Friday trading
- Mizuho Securities increased its price objective to $1,375 while maintaining an outperform stance, joining several other firms raising their forecasts
- Reports emerged that Apple is pursuing U.S. regulatory clearance to purchase DRAM from China’s CXMT — Mizuho views this as irrelevant to Micron’s supply dynamics
- South Korean officials unveiled plans for a long-term memory chip facility buildout; Mizuho characterizes it as posturing without firm financial backing
- Fall HBM pricing discussions identified as the critical upcoming event, with potential price increases reaching 2.5x current 2026 rates for 2027 contracts
Shares of Micron Technology (MU) rocketed over 15% on June 24 following stellar third-quarter financial results, reaching an unprecedented high of $1,255. However, the semiconductor giant’s stock reversed course Friday, closing down 6.7% on substantial volume of 86.4 million shares — roughly twice its typical three-month trading activity.
The company delivered Q3 earnings per share of $25.11, crushing analyst projections of $20.98 by more than $4. Revenue reached $41.46 billion versus Wall Street’s anticipated $35.91 billion. This represents a remarkable 345.8% year-over-year growth rate.
Management also provided fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 guidance calling for EPS between $30.00 and $32.00, surpassing prevailing analyst forecasts.
Notwithstanding the recent decline, Mizuho’s TMT analyst Jordan Klein is advising clients to maintain their positions. The firm elevated its price objective from $1,150 to $1,375, suggesting approximately 13% potential appreciation from Friday’s closing level.
Numerous other Wall Street institutions have similarly revised their targets upward. Susquehanna established a $2,000 target, Needham increased its forecast to $1,650, Deutsche Bank adjusted to $1,550, Wedbush moved to $1,400, and Wolfe Research set a $1,500 objective. Among 39 analysts tracking the stock, 31 maintain Buy ratings while five assign Strong Buy recommendations.
Klein highlighted two recent news items that pessimistic investors are citing. The first involves reports that Apple is requesting U.S. government authorization to procure DRAM chips from CXMT, a Chinese semiconductor manufacturer currently on the Commerce Department’s Entity List.
Klein’s interpretation: this reflects industry-wide supply constraints rather than issues specific to Micron. The company has already reallocated its production capacity toward hyperscaler HBM and LPDDR DRAM agreements, alongside automotive and industrial clientele. Any disruption involving Apple would disproportionately impact Samsung and SK Hynix instead.
Whether regulators will even approve such licensing remains uncertain. Klein additionally observes that China’s internal demand for CXMT’s output is substantial, making it unlikely Beijing would permit significant supply redirection to international purchasers.
Korean Fab Expansion: More Noise Than Signal
The second bearish narrative centers on a formal declaration from SK Hynix, Samsung, and South Korea’s government regarding a multi-decade memory fabrication expansion encompassing approximately four new production facilities. Klein describes this announcement as predominantly political theater, emphasizing that no concrete capital allocations are anticipated this year or next. Micron already has four new manufacturing sites in its development roadmap.
Apple CEO Tim Cook characterized the memory supply shortage to the Wall Street Journal as a “once in a century flood,” stating he had witnessed nothing comparable throughout his 40-year career. Elon Musk amplified these comments on X, describing the gap between available capacity and market demand as “insane.”
Autumn Contract Talks Are the Catalyst to Watch
A Monday report from Digitimes suggests memory manufacturers may increase HBM pricing — including next-generation HBM4 — to as much as 2.5 times 2026 levels during upcoming annual supply negotiations governing 2027 contracts.
These negotiations traditionally occur each fall. Klein suggests any developments in September or October indicating robust HBM contract pricing could prompt substantial upward revisions to Wall Street’s 2027 EPS forecasts.
Micron’s upcoming earnings announcement is scheduled for September 29, 2026 — coinciding precisely with when those critical HBM contract discussions are anticipated to intensify.
Analyst consensus for fiscal Q4 2026 projects EPS of $25.72 on revenue of roughly $43.58 billion. Every one of the 25 analyst revisions published over the past 90 days has been upward.
