Key Highlights
- NBIS rose 8.9% in pre-market hours following Nasdaq’s announcement of its Nasdaq-100 inclusion, set to take effect June 22
- Shares have soared 320% in the past year and gained 135% year-to-date, reaching a market capitalization near $55 billion
- Major contracts feature a $17 billion partnership with Microsoft and a $27 billion compute agreement with Meta
- Goldman Sachs elevated its price target to $267; Citi maintains the highest Street target at $287
- Morningstar assigns NBIS a 1-star rating, placing fair value at $120 — suggesting an 82% valuation premium at present levels
Nebius Group (NBIS) experienced a significant rally on June 15, climbing 8.9% during pre-market hours after Nasdaq revealed the AI cloud infrastructure company would enter the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) on June 22. Currently trading near $218 per share, the stock has attracted analyst price targets spanning from $235 to $287.
The Nasdaq-100 inclusion is anticipated to generate immediate buying momentum. Index-tracking funds and exchange-traded funds that replicate the NDX must acquire newly added components, typically generating increased demand and liquidity. Nebius enters alongside CoreWeave (CRWV), Rocket Lab (RKLB), Astera Labs (ALAB), and Teradyne (TER) in the forthcoming index reconstitution.
NBIS has delivered a remarkable 320% return over twelve months and 135% gains year-to-date, establishing a market valuation approaching $55 billion — matching competitor CoreWeave’s scale.
The firm’s metamorphosis from a Russian technology conglomerate to an AI cloud infrastructure specialist represents one of the most dramatic corporate reinventions in modern business. Following Yandex’s trading suspension in 2022 amid sanctions, the organization shed its Russian operations, rebranded as Nebius, and relaunched with concentrated focus on GPU-accelerated data center facilities throughout Europe and North America.
Major Contracts Fueling Momentum
What has established Nebius as a legitimate industry contender is its impressive roster of enterprise customers. Microsoft committed to a multi-year $17 billion revenue arrangement for GPU infrastructure in September 2025. Meta subsequently announced a compute partnership valued at up to $27 billion in March 2026. Nvidia contributed a $2 billion equity investment. More recently, the Situational Awareness fund — associated with former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner — acquired a 5.6% ownership position.
Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero notes these hyperscaler partnerships accomplish two objectives: they establish Nebius as a credible enterprise-grade provider and deliver advance payments that help balance substantial capital expenditure requirements.
Nebius disclosed Q1 revenue reaching $399 million, representing 684% year-over-year expansion. Management projected a 2026 annual revenue run rate between $7 billion and $9 billion.
Wall Street Optimistic Despite Valuation Questions
Following the NDX announcement, Goldman Sachs increased its NBIS price objective from $234 to $267. Citi maintained its industry-leading target of $287, indicating 23.5% potential upside. Bank of America analyst Tal Liani elevated his target to $280, pointing to strengthening compute demand and enhanced software capabilities.
According to TipRanks, NBIS carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating — comprising six Buy ratings and four Hold ratings — with a mean price target of $235.
Morningstar represents a significant counterpoint. Correonero assigns NBIS only 1 star, establishing a fair value assessment of $120 — recently upgraded from $85 — indicating the stock trades at an 82% premium to intrinsic value. He identifies substantial capital expenditure, possible shareholder dilution, and customer concentration with limited hyperscaler clients as primary risks. Nebius has disclosed $20 billion to $25 billion in projected capital spending for 2026.
Correonero emphasizes it isn’t speculative — “It is a serious data center operator with a solid and knowledgeable management team” — while noting elevated volatility characteristics.
Rob Thummel of Tortoise Capital, which established a Nebius position approximately six months ago, describes it as the fund’s most direct European AI infrastructure investment, highlighting its vertically integrated approach — controlling approximately 75% of its data center real estate rather than leasing space.
Nebius recently unveiled a £1.7 billion commitment to expand United Kingdom data center infrastructure, supported by Nvidia technology, and introduced a Physical AI Living Lab facility for robotics ventures.
