Key Highlights
- Analytics firm identified six suspicious Polymarket accounts that collectively profited $1 million from US-Iran strike predictions.
- Trading activity occurred within 24 hours of military operations, with positions entered just hours before Tehran explosions.
- One account transformed approximately $61,000 into more than $493,000 in returns.
- Bubblemaps labeled these accounts as “suspected insiders,” acknowledging definitive proof remains elusive.
- Congressman Ritchie Torres advances legislation aimed at prohibiting federal employees from prediction market trading on policy matters.
A group of six recently established cryptocurrency wallets generated approximately $1 million in profits through Polymarket by wagering on whether the United States would strike Iran before February 28, 2026 — remarkably, the majority of these positions were opened mere hours before explosions echoed through Tehran.
Blockchain intelligence company Bubblemaps detected these six accounts following analysis that revealed highly questionable timing patterns. The wallets were predominantly established and capitalized within a single day of the military strikes, with all participants acquiring “yes” positions on Polymarket’s “US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” prediction market.
President Donald Trump verified “massive and ongoing” military action targeting Iran, designated as “Operation Epic Fury” by the Department of War. Israeli forces participated in the coordinated assault.
The highest-earning account purchased 560,680 “yes” tokens at approximately 10.8 cents per unit, investing around $61,000. Upon market resolution, this position yielded profits exceeding $493,000.
Another account operating under the username “Planktonbets” accumulated $173,907 across seven different prediction markets. This wallet had previously placed unsuccessful wagers on earlier potential strike dates, indicating multiple attempts to pinpoint the precise timing.
An account designated “Dicedicedice” executed a solitary wager that generated $119,964 — representing a 400% gain. Meanwhile, “Neodbs” recorded the most impressive percentage return among identified wallets at 900%, converting $9,884 into approximately $89,000.
Two additional wallets, “nothingeverhappens911” and one unidentified account, secured profits of $66,436 and $45,556 respectively. All six accounts have subsequently liquidated their entire holdings.
Significant Losses Hit Contrarian Trader
Profits weren’t universal. An individual identified as “anoin123” had accumulated over $2 million by betting against military strikes in preceding months. After the attacks materialized, this account suffered $6.5 million in losses within 24 hours, transitioning from $2 million in gains to a $4.5 million deficit, based on blockchain data from Lookonchain.
Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman stated to The Block: “It’s almost impossible to be 100% certain in these cases, but given the size of the bets, the freshly funded wallets, and the timing, it felt convincing enough to share.”
The collection of “US strikes Iran” prediction contracts generated over $529 million in cumulative trading volume on Polymarket beginning in December 2025. The specific February 28 market captured approximately $90 million in activity.
Recurring Concerns About Privileged Information
This incident represents another chapter in Polymarket‘s ongoing struggles with insider trading allegations. During January, a newly funded wallet placed $32,000 on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s removal at 7 cents per token, ultimately earning over $400,000 before public announcement.
Earlier in the current month, Israeli authorities charged an IDF reservist alongside a civilian for allegedly exploiting classified military data to profit from Polymarket markets connected to Israel’s Iran strike during June 2025’s Twelve-Day War. The accused reportedly generated combined profits surpassing $150,000.
Mere days preceding the Iran military action, suspected insiders captured over $1 million through a Polymarket contract associated with a blockchain examination of cryptocurrency platform Axiom.
US Representative Ritchie Torres has proposed the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, legislation designed to prevent federal officials from trading prediction market contracts linked to governmental policy utilizing confidential information. Competing platform Kalshi has expressed support for the proposed legislation, with its CEO emphasizing that regulated prediction markets cannot legally operate war-related markets.
