Key Takeaways
- Timothy Horan of Oppenheimer downgraded AT&T shares from Outperform to Perform and eliminated his previous $32 price objective.
- Shares of AT&T fell 4.4% to $23.56 on Wednesday — marking the steepest one-day decline since October 2025 — and now trade 5.2% lower year-to-date.
- The rating cut stems from increasing competition in satellite broadband, particularly from SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon’s Leo platforms, which analysts believe could chip away at AT&T’s internet customer base.
- The anticipated initial public offering of SpaceX next week is expected to intensify focus on the competitive challenges satellite technology presents to conventional broadband companies.
- According to Horan’s forecast, satellite LEO services will add more than 2 million customers annually and command 10% of the market by 2030, with Starlink’s pricing now matching traditional broadband offerings.
AT&T (T) Stock Slides 4.4% Following Analyst Downgrade Amid Satellite Broadband Concerns
Shares of AT&T tumbled 4.4% to $23.56 on Wednesday following Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan’s decision to downgrade the telecommunications company from Outperform to Perform, while also scrapping his previous $32 price target. The decline represented the stock’s steepest single-session loss since October 2025.
The downgrade didn’t stem from operational missteps by AT&T. Instead, it reflects mounting concerns about an emerging threat from the sky.
Horan’s primary worry revolves around intensifying competition from satellite low-earth-orbit (LEO) broadband services, especially SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon’s Leo platforms. The analyst contends that the telecommunications sector is failing to recognize how significantly satellite internet could disrupt traditional fixed broadband — similar to how cable providers initially underestimated the impact of fixed wireless technology.
“We are concerned the industry is underestimating the risk of satellite as cable did with [fixed wireless access],” Horan stated in his analytical note.
Upcoming SpaceX Public Offering to Amplify Competitive Concerns
The timing of this downgrade carries particular significance. With SpaceX’s initial public offering scheduled for next week, Horan anticipates the market debut will heighten awareness of the competitive challenge satellite technology presents to established telecom companies like AT&T.
Horan forecasts that satellite services will acquire over 2 million new customers annually and potentially secure 10% of total market share by 2030. He further observes that Starlink’s pricing has become competitive with conventional broadband services, while capacity is projected to expand tenfold through the deployment of V3 satellites.
Among AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile, Horan identifies AT&T as facing the greatest vulnerability. He points to AT&T’s substantial wireline infrastructure and its slower progress in fixed wireless access expansion compared to competitors as primary risk factors. Additionally, he anticipates downward pressure on average revenue per user (ARPU), with T-Mobile and Verizon’s superior cost structures intensifying the competitive landscape.
AT&T CEO John Stankey has previously countered concerns about satellite competition. During the company’s annual shareholder meeting in May, he recognized satellite’s utility for serving remote locations, but maintained: “I don’t think satellite is a substitute for the speed, reliability and capability of our assets that we’ve been investing in for decades.”
AT&T’s Massive $250 Billion Infrastructure Initiative
The telecommunications giant is far from passive. This March, AT&T unveiled plans for a $250 billion capital investment over five years to accelerate the rollout of fiber, 5G, and wireless infrastructure nationwide.
During the Q1 earnings call in April, Stankey revealed that AT&T currently provides fiber access to more than 37 million customer locations and projects reaching over 60 million locations by decade’s end.
AT&T has also introduced a promotional offering bundling home internet and wireless services starting at just $35 monthly.
Current analyst consensus and Seeking Alpha contributors maintain a Buy rating on AT&T shares, though Seeking Alpha’s Quant rating assigns it a Hold designation with a 3.42 out of 5 score, reflecting strong profitability metrics but weaker growth prospects.
AT&T stock has declined 5.2% in 2026.
